Las Vegas Aces vs New York Liberty Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Vegas Takes Bite Out of Big Apple

And now the game we’ve all been waiting for. The defending champion Las Vegas Aces are on the road this afternoon visiting the Empire State in a bid to take down their super team rivals, the New York Liberty. No matter how each side might try to downplay it, this is a significant test for both squads, with the Liberty desperate to demonstrate their growth since the 17-point rout Vegas subjected them to back in late June. 

The Aces, meanwhile, hope to cement their status as prohibitive championship favorites, and another dominant win against a stacked Liberty squad would make them just that.

Our WNBA picks and predictions for Aces vs. Liberty believe Las Vegas is still, far and away, the superior team at this point in time. Read on to see why.

Aces vs Liberty best odds

Aces vs Liberty picks and predictions

Today is the first of three games between Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty in August, setting up what some see as a preview of an eventual WNBA Finals. Though this matchup has been billed this way since before the season, the Aces are — for now — in a tier by themselves, and the Liberty are still very much playing catchup.

The Liberty are 21-6, the second seed in the W, and have rattled off eight wins over their last 10 games. The Aces are the undisputed top dog, with just two total losses to their 24 wins, and a victory over New York today would extend their current winning streak to nine.

The Liberty’s chances to win this thing, or at least keep it interesting, come down to their greatest strength: 3-point shooting. While it was the Aces last season that rode a wave of shooting talent all the way to the title, the Liberty have leveled up in terms of volume even from those lofty heights. The Liberty lead the W with 29.1 attempts from 3-point range per game.

What the Aces have is everything else. They’ve honed their offense to a fine balance between perimeter shooting and attacking the rim while spacing the floor so well and driving with such purpose that most players on the team are putting up career-high efficiency numbers.

The Aces have one of the best free-throw rates in the W, while the Liberty own the second worst. Las Vegas also has battle-tested continuity, while role definition is still a work in progress for a Liberty squad that underwent a complete overhaul during the offseason.

And that’s before getting to the defensive side of the ball, where the Aces are clearly several notches above. A’ja Wilson quarterbacks the Las Vegas defense, and while it’s debatable if she or Breanna Stewart is the better individual defender, the impact that A’ja has is much greater because her influence extends to the many dogged Aces defenders. The Aces guards are smart and tough, and though they lost Candace Parker to a foot fracture, in her place they’ve brought All-Defense caliber forward Kiah Stokes into the starting unit in her absence.

The Liberty have serious issues when it comes to defense. While Stewart and Jonquel Jones are as intimidating a frontcourt as there is, they can only do so much when the Liberty guards allow so much dribble penetration. 

The New York offense sputters without Sabrina Ionescu or Courtney Vandersloot running the show, but those two are also weak at the point of attack and will suffer against blow-bys by Kelsey Plum, lightning-quick pull-ups by Jackie Young, or the force and craft of Chelsea Gray.

Despite regularly having to cover 17+ point spreads, the Aces are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight. The Liberty have made a regular habit of blowing leads to inferior competition, while Las Vegas has maintained a killer mentality right from the beginning of the season.  New York has struggled ATS all season long, and are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12, including 2-6 ATS in their last eight games at home.

There are not going to be many chances to back Las Vegas at a number this small for the rest of the season, so take this one while you can.

My best bet: Aces -4.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

Aces vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis

Sunday’s matinee showdown between the Aces and the Liberty opened at New York +3.5, which has since risen as high as +5.5. There is pretty significant variability in terms of line and vig across the various sportsbooks, so it’s definitely worth price hunting.

Everyone knew this Aces team would be good. After all, they won the championship last season, and for a time they’d added Parker. But oddsmakers were not prepared for them to not only be as good as last season but to enter a new tier — or two — above where they’d been before. They’ve been up against lofty expectations against the spread in every game this season, and yet they’ve managed to go 15-11 ATS overall.

Expectations have not been as kind to the Liberty. Despite their 21-6 record, they’ve not matched it when it comes to covering ATS. New York has consistently been one of the worst ATS teams this season, going just 11-16 in 27 games played, including dropping three of their last four ATS.

The total for today’s contest opened at 171.5, one of the higher marks of the season. What has been incredible to watch is that line has jumped as high as 176.5 without any injury or lineup news, making it some of the most significant line movement in terms of a total this season.

There’s plenty of reason to believe this will be a high-scoring environment. These teams lead the W in true shooting percentage by a mile, and they have 3-point shooting depth that makes every other W team envious.

The Aces also almost never turn the ball over, which, taken with their efficiency, sees them regularly post gaudy scoring numbers, and it’s contributed to the Over cashing in six of their last eight games overall, as well as four of their last five on the road. The Liberty, for their part, have seen the Over cash in seven straight games against teams with a winning record.

However, they do have a natural defensive foil for each other's best player. There are fewer than five players in the W that match up well with either Wilson or Stewart — they each just happen to be one for the other. Stewart is a bit of a better shooter from range, while A’ja is relentless inside with outstanding touch, both are switchy defensively and capable of defending the rim or perimeter as needed. 

Insofar as their scoring impact goes, I’d expect them to be somewhat muted by one another in a vacuum. But games aren’t played in a vacuum, and both of these MVPs are going to want to win this game badly, and big game players step up in these moments even against ideal defensive matchups.

All that said, betting against the public is the play here. Getting five points against the original total is too much to pass up. I’d strongly lean Under 176.5.

Aces vs Liberty betting trend to know

The Liberty are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Liberty.

Aces vs Liberty game info

Aces vs Liberty key injuries

Aces: Riquna Williams G (Out), Candace Parker F (Out).
Liberty: Stefanie Dolson C (Out), Han Xu C (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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