Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Cunningham Rises to the Occasion

The WNBA oddsmakers pile on the points with both hands when the shorthanded Phoenix Mercury host the defending champion Las Vegas Aces this afternoon.

Phoenix is down veteran leaders Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner, leaving the Mercury without their two top scorers when the high-powered Aces roll into the Footprint Center for a matinee matchup tipping off at 3:30 p.m. ET. As a result, Vegas is flirting with a 20-point spread.

That massive mountain of chalk is warranted, considering the Aces have just laid waste to spreads of -17 and -18 in their last two outings.

I size up this monstrous point spread and dissect the Over/Under total while also giving my best WNBA picks and predictions for Aces at Mercury on June 21.

Aces vs Mercury best odds

Aces vs Mercury picks and predictions

Weird spreads often produce weird results, but I’m going to try to shoehorn in some logic when making my bets for Aces at Mercury.

The twosome of Taurasi and Griner account for almost half of Phoneix's scoring production and shoot a collective 25 field goal attempts per game. Those looks have to land elsewhere. In the past two games, without those stars on the floor, those shots have come from guard Sophie Cunningham.

She went 4-for-9 for 13 points when Taurasi was a surprise scratch against Washington last Friday but then shot 9 of 15 and scored 27 points against New York, with teammate Michaela Onyenwere going down early after taking a hit to the face.

Cunningham was averaging 13 points before the injuries to BG and DT, putting up 10.4 shots over 30.2 minutes per game. Her scoring prop for Wednesday’s matinee varies from book to book, with a low of 15.5 (Over -113) at FanDuel while other shops are dealing 17.5 (Over -115).

WNBA player projections are calling for 32 minutes and as many as 19 shots, with a scoring forecast of 21 points. I’m a bit cautious on the higher projections, given her 27-point performance came with Onyenwere only playing 12 minutes before getting hurt and, of course, she’s facing an Aces defense that sits tops in advanced rating.

However, tempered projections still have a high ceiling for Cunningham and the lower-scoring prop available at FanDuel is too good to pass up. 

My best bet: Sophie Cunningham Over 15.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)

Aces vs Mercury spread and Over/Under analysis

WNBA odds opened Las Vegas as low as -18.5 for this matchup in the desert and money instantly took the favorite, running this spread to as high as -19.5 as of Wednesday morning. According to Covers Consensus, 41% of picks are on Vegas as some bettors have been scared off by a spread this big.

Just how big? Well, from my recollection, the biggest WNBA spread I can remember in recent years was 20.5 points.

My WNBA power ratings produced an unadjusted spread of Vegas -11 but once you factor in the impact the absences of Taurasi and Griner are bound to have on this game, you can easily see why this line is trending toward historic status.

Even if those two stars were in action, the Aces would be laying a big number given just how bad the Mercury have been this season. Phoenix is 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS with those two wins coming against bottom-tier teams Indiana and Minnesota.

Phoenix even started the season with one of the softer schedules but couldn’t take advantage of those weaker foes, thanks in large part to second-half collapses. The Mercury, who have since faced top-tier opposition in Washington, New York, and now Las Vegas, own a second-half net rating of -8.8.

As for the Aces, the reigning title winners were admittedly slow out of the gates in 2023. While the team was winning games, it wasn’t living up to the oddsmakers’ expectations with a 4-5 ATS mark in the first nine contests. However, Las Vegas has since squashed sizeable spreads against bottom teams like Seattle and Minnesota the past two games, posting a pair of 30-plus point victories.

As for today’s Over/Under total, it opened 164.5 points and has swelled to as high as 166 as of Wednesday morning.

Las Vegas is the top-scoring team in the land and has proven it in the past two outings with efforts of 93 and 96 points doing the heavy lifting. But the Aces' equally elite defense checked those rivals to 62 and 63 points, keeping the final scores Under closing totals of 168.5 and 170.5.

The Mercury sit ninth in offensive rating on the season but are technically down 46% of their offensive output with Griner and Taurasi sidelined. Phoenix has produced scores of 69 and 71 points the past two games (0-1-1 O/U) without its stars — a dip from its scoring average of 79.1 in the eight games prior.

Aces vs Mercury betting trend to know

The Mercury are 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Mercury.

Aces vs Mercury game info

Aces vs Mercury key injuries

Aces: None
Mercury: Brittney Griner C (Out), Diana Taurasi G (Out)
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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