Las Vegas Aces vs Seattle Storm Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Gray Keeps Diming in Seattle

The Las Vegas Aces not only face the Seattle Storm in their first game back from the WNBA All-Star break, but also a massive mountain of chalk.

Las Vegas opened as an 18.5-point road favorite in the Emerald City tonight, which is one of the biggest point spreads of the 2023 season (has since slimmed)... and it’s warranted. The Aces continue to blow out opponents, going a perfect 4-0 ATS when set as faves of -16 or more in the first half of the schedule.

Seattle sits near the bottom of the WNBA standings and took a seven-game losing skid into the annual hiatus. In their two matchups with Vegas, the Storm have been rolled by a collective 74 points.

I break down this sizable spread as well as the Over/Under total and give my best WNBA picks and predictions for Aces at Storm on July 20.

Aces vs Storm best odds

Aces vs Storm picks and predictions

Only a team like Vegas could absorb the loss of a veteran like Candace Parker and not skip a beat. The Aces are business as usual without their starting center, leaning into a roster loaded with top-tier talent to keep Vegas on its championship pace.

In order to pick up that slack, Sin City's stars have either upped their scoring, defense, rebounding, and in the case of Chelsea Gray... passing.

Gray has dished out an average of 8.7 dimes the past three games — more than a 2-assist jump from her season average of 6.5 per game. That’s where her player prop is parked at for this trip to Seattle, sitting at 6.5 with the Over priced at -120.

Thursday’s player projections range from 6.9 dimes to 7.8 from Gray. Those models should have the Over 6.5 assists priced more in the -140 range.

On top of that, the game script calls for another busy night for the Aces’ side of the scoreboard. This pile of chalk and lofty team total backs up a big scoring night for the visitors, with Gray’s backcourt mates Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young racking up the buckets in recent games.

Gray had nine assists in the last matchup with the Storm and has recorded totals of five, 11, and 10 assists in the final three games before the All-Star break. Seattle is among the bottom teams in defensive metrics and allows a league-high 21.5 assists per game — a 68% assist-to-FG rate. Vegas tallied assist numbers of 22 and 25 in its first two meetings with the Storm.

Even if the Aces play to expectations, which they don’t usually do, there are still at least 23 assists up for grabs tonight. Given Vegas’ towering ceiling on offense, positive player projections, and Gray’s growing role as a facilitator, I like her to total seven or more helpers Thursday.

My best bet: Chelsea Gray Over 6.5 assists (-120 at FanDuel)

Aces vs Storm spread and Over/Under analysis

Oddsmakers were shy about this spread, opening Las Vegas as an 18-point road favorite for Thursday night with some spots as high as -18.5. However, that line has shortened to -16.5 as of Thursday afternoon.

My WNBA power ratings produced a notable spread as well, but were a tick shorter at -16.8. You could trim that considering Vegas will be without starting center Candace Parker for a fourth straight game due to an ankle injury. However, the overall impact of Parker on the spread is debatable considering just how stacked the Vegas roster is... and how bad Seattle is.

The Aces steamrolled the Storm in their two matchups so far this season, winning by 41 on the road in the season opener and then crushing Seattle by 33 points at home back on June 15.

Las Vegas has just two defeats this season and sits atop the WNBA in both offensive and defensive rating, boasting a net rating of +19.1. That gives them a 12.4-point gap in that measurement when compared to their closest competition (New York +6.7).

Seattle, on the other hand, sits at -9.0 in that metric and continues to struggle with a lack of talent beyond superstar guard Jewell Loyd and blossoming forward Ezi Magbegor. That combo contributes close to 50% of the Storm’s total offense so far in 2023.

Even a loyal home crowd (second best attendance) and a pile of points from the bookies have barely kept the Storm profitable as hosts, going 2-9 SU and 6-5 ATS.

This Over/Under total opened at 169 points and has jumped to as high as 171.5 at some online markets.

The previous two meetings between these Western Conference foes closed at 167.5 and 168.5, with the Aces and Storm staying Under the latter number in their most recent encounter in Sin City. Vegas did the lion’s share of the scoring in those games with these teams producing a fast pace rating of 103.2 in those matchups.

Las Vegas enters the second half of the season with a 13-8 Over/Under record and has topped the total in three straight games before the break. They rank out No. 3 in pace rating overall, producing a league-high average of 94 points.

Seattle also embraces tempo, ranked fourth in pace rating, but doesn’t execute as well on the offensive end. The Storm put up just 79 points an outing and shoot a league-low 39.7% from the floor.

When stars like Loyd and Magbegor struggle, the Storm quickly run out of options. Seattle is 11-9 O/U on the season, including a 6-5 O/U count inside Climate Pledge Arena.

Aces vs Storm betting trend to know

The Aces are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 versus Western Conference competition. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Storm.

Aces vs Storm game info

Aces vs Storm key injuries

Aces: Candace Parker C (Out).
Storm: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

Pages related to this topic