Despite a few small bumps in the road, the Las Vegas Aces juggernaut broke the WNBA single-season wins record this week — and they’ll look to extend that mark tonight as they face the Washington Mystics.
A backlash from the Aces after losing in the Commissioner’s Cup Championship felt inevitable, and Becky Hammon’s team have won three of their four games since that setback, including Thursday’s landmark 94-87 win over the Chicago Sky.
The Mystics still hold the eighth and final playoff spot, but they’re 3-7 in their last 10 games and their offense went missing in Tuesday’s 68-64 loss to the Connecticut Sun. A repeat of that 36% shooting night won’t cut it here.
Read on for more details on tonight’s showdown in our free Aces vs Mystics WNBA picks and predictions for Saturday, August 26.
Aces vs Mystics best odds
Aces vs Mystics picks and predictions
If any team was going to be able to absorb an extended injury absence for a star like Candace Parker, it’s the loaded 2023 Aces. They’ve missed Parker’s all-around game but that setback has forced others to take on a bigger workload — and A’ja Wilson has certainly embraced the challenge.
This week against the Atlanta Dream, Wilson’s play went up another level in an unstoppable 53-point clinic on 16-for-23 shooting with 20 made free throws. By those standards, her 18-point, 10-rebound stat line on Thursday against Chicago was more pedestrian but I’m banking on Wilson leading the way for the visitors tonight.
A quick glance at the teams’ prior meeting earlier this month makes me feel even better about the Wilson points prop. The Mystics had no answer for the Las Vegas superstar, who finished with 40 points and missed just eight of her 25 shots.
With Kelsey Plum and Chelsea Gray likely to keep the Washington defense busy on the perimeter, there should be space for Wilson to operate in the paint. She’s shooting a career-high 54% this year and has a combined 60 field-goal attempts in her last three contests.
Despite a 12-game lead at the top of the Western Conference, I don’t see the Aces taking their foot off the gas — and that creates a path to enough minutes and touches for Wilson to cash in this prop.
My best bet: A’ja Wilson Over 22.5 Points (-115 at bet365)
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Aces vs Mystics spread and Over/Under analysis
WNBA records were in jeopardy the second that Parker signed with the Aces this offseason, and this roster has lived up to the hype. Thursday’s victory over the Sky was Las Vegas’ 30th win, moving past the prior record of 29 set by the Phoenix Mercury with six games to spare.
Given all that, it’s no surprise to see the visitors pegged as massive favorites alongside a double-digit spread. They’re 14-3 on the road this year and dispatched the Mystics 113-89 back on August 11. Though the Aces are 1-4 ATS in their last five games, the case for the Mystics covering the spread isn’t helped by their 1-6-1 ATS mark in their last eight games.
Keep in mind too that Washington is sweating the health of both Natasha Cloud and Elena Delle Donne. If either sits out tonight, that’s a big blow for the Mystics’ chances of matching the Las Vegas shot-makers.
The Over is 6-1 in the Aces’ last seven games after failing to cover the spread in their prior game — and it’s always going to be in play with the efficiency of this Las Vegas offense. The Aces’ sharpshooting was on full display on Tuesday as they poured in 112 points against the Dream (51% from the field, 42% on 3-pointers).
Though the Under is 6-2 in the Mystics’ last eight games following a straight-up loss, the Over has been a winner in their last four games against Western Conference opponents.
Aces vs Mystics betting trend to know
The Mystics have struggled against the West this season, failing to cover the spread in any of their last seven games against teams from outside their conference. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Mystics.
Aces vs Mystics game info
| Location: | Entertainment and Sports Arena Washington, DC |
| Date: | Saturday, August 26, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBA TV |
Aces vs Mystics key injuries
Aces: Candace Parker F (Out), Riquna Williams G (Out).
Mystics: Natasha Cloud G (Questionable), Elena Delle Donne F (Questionable), Kristi Toliver G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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