There may be another WNBA championship contender to ponder. The Phoenix Mercury have won three of four outright since Brittney Griner’s return, going 4-0 against the spread in that stretch. If they can upset the New York Liberty tonight, that pondering will need to become something more actionable.
Our Liberty vs. Mercury predictions will lean into that thought, in no small part because any free WNBA picks right now should back Griner before tip on Tuesday, June 18.
Liberty vs Mercury predictions
My best bet
Over 170.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Sometimes the handicap is best explained by walking through the entire thought process. The first instinct was to back the Phoenix Mercury at +5 (-110 at FanDuel and DraftKings), simply because this 4-0 ATS stretch since Brittney Griner’s return suggests oddsmakers have not caught up to her impact.
But the Mercury were six-point home underdogs against the Aces this week, while the New York Liberty were 2.5-point road ‘dogs in Las Vegas. Apply homecourt advantage to those numbers, and it would be logical to think Phoenix would be a six-point underdog tonight. The shift to +5 may be small, but it is a step toward oddsmakers correcting their read on the Mercury.
But look further into Phoenix’s resurgence since Griner had any minutes restrictions removed. The Mercury’s offensive rating in those three games would top even the Liberty’s No. 1 rating on the season. Its defensive rating would still sit No. 8.
The two best units on the floor tonight should be the two offenses.
Of course, oddsmakers expect that, too. But if Phoenix’s offense deserves any description amid the top of the league, then facing the Liberty should unlock just about any prospective total.
New York thrives on offense, and the Mercury are running these days — the No. 2 pace since June 8 — at a rate that would rank No. 5 across the season.
Betting this Over is a bet on Griner’s impact, while taking some caution in tailing Phoenix given New York’s deserved respect.
Liberty vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 170.5
Brittney Griner Over 19.5 points
Mercury +5
Griner has scored at least 24 points in her three games with no minutes restriction, shooting 64.6% from the field in those games and attempting nearly six free throws per game. She could fall off tonight, plausible when going against the No. 4 defensive rating in the WNBA, but she did just score 28 points on 10 of 15 shooting against the team with the No. 3 defensive rating.
Even if Griner falls off, reaching 20 points would be logical.
And if she does so, then trusting the Mercury to stay within two buckets has some validity. If this spread was +6, it likely would have been the best bet. Oddsmakers adjusting by a point does not scare us off from including the spread within this same-game parlay.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Liberty vs Mercury odds
Liberty vs Mercury live odds
Get the latest Liberty vs Mercury WNBA odds for tonight.
Liberty vs Mercury opening odds
- Spread: New York -6 | Phoenix +6
- Moneyline: New York -261 | Phoenix +222
- Over/Under: Over 166.5 | Under 166.5
Liberty vs Mercury spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread opened with New York favored by 5.5 or 6 late on Sunday, depending on your sportsbook, before it fell to -5 early Tuesday morning.
- The total opened at 167 or 167.5 late on Sunday and waited until Tuesday morning to begin climbing, peaking at 171 before settling at 170.5.
- The timing of this best bet may worry some, getting the worst of the number, but WNBA lines continue to move fast and before all books have numbers. The worst of the number is not as worrisome in this market as it often is in others.
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Liberty vs Mercury trend
The Liberty have won eight straight outright, including five on the road, one as an underdog and two more as favorites of -6 or less. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Mercury.
Liberty vs Mercury game info
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Tuesday, 6-18-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS Sports Network |
Liberty vs Mercury latest injuries
Liberty: C. Vandersloot (Doubtful), N. Sabally (Out).
Mercury: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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