The defending champion Chicago Sky officially begin their title defense tonight against the upstart New York Liberty. The Sky will be attempting to be the first WNBA team since the Los Angeles Sparks to become repeat champions 20 years ago. History is against them and so is a young and hungry Liberty team.
The Liberty had to claw and scrape just to get into the playoffs, and Sabrina Ionescu will hope to build on her already budding superstar legacy by pulling off a massive first-round upset. But that’s going to be tough, even for Sabrina, as Liberty vs. Sky is a matchup nightmare for New York.
With their superior talent and disciplined perimeter defense, our WNBA picks and predictions think the defending champs should win comfortably in Game 1.
Liberty vs Sky Game 1 odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Chicago Sky opened as -7 point favorites, and most books have seen a slight rise to -8. The total has also seen a small bump from 165 to 165.5 by the time of this writing.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full WNBA odds before placing your bets.
Liberty vs Sky Game 1 predictions
Predictions made on 8/17/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Liberty vs Sky info
• Location: Wintrust Arena, Chicago, IL
• Date: Wednesday, August 17, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
Liberty vs Sky series odds
Liberty: +320.
Sky: -425.
Liberty vs Sky betting preview
Key injuries
Liberty: None.
Sky: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 6-1 in the Sky's last 7 home games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Sky.
Liberty vs Sky Game 1 picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The 2022 WNBA playoffs have introduced a new best-of-three format for the first round, with the higher seed hosting two home games and, if necessary, the underdog getting a chance to complete the upset at home in Game 3. That means the onus is on the favorite to take care of business as soon as possible lest they find themselves with their playoff lives on the line in a hostile road environment.
This is an intriguing matchup and it’s proving a popular first-round upset pick. It’s youth vs. experience, a top-heavy offense vs. an evenly distributed attack, and it’s the league's best paint offense vs. a team that lets it all ride from 3-point range. It’s not quite a matchup of total opposites, but Liberty vs. Sky is still a somewhat poetic game to begin the WNBA playoffs.
On one side, we have the New York Liberty, who won three in a row and six of their last eight to punch their ticket to the postseason in a wild race against the Minnesota Lynx, Phoenix Mercury, and Dallas Wings. They’re a team on the rise, unpredictable and inconsistent, that is capable of truly stellar play.
The Chicago Sky have already been to the mountaintop, won a championship, and are looking to break the mold and do it in back-to-back seasons. They had their ups and downs to start the year, but closed strong, tied with the Las Vegas Aces at 26-10 for the best record in the league.
These teams played four times with the Sky claiming a 3-1 edge and an overall point differential of +40. But most of that stems from an 83-50 blowout win back in May. In truth, the Liberty have played the Sky quite well.
But the fact remains that this is a nightmare matchup for New York. Simply put, the Liberty are the definition of a team that lives by the three and — in many cases — dies by it. Chicago is better equipped to force the latter than any other team in the “W.” The Sky are the only contending team that actively sells out in the paint to guard the perimeter. That formula might hurt in a potential second-round matchup against the Connecticut Sun, but it should prove downright devastating against New York.
Chicago allows the fewest opponent 3-pointers in the WNBA at just 19.1 per game. That’s more than six attempts fewer than fellow contender Las Vegas and forms a distinct part of Chicago’s philosophy. Opponent 3-pointers allowed is the best metric we have to account for consistent 3-point defense, and further suggests that Liberty players will be taking the few threes they do get with a defender closing out hard right in their face.
That’s particularly bad news because Sabrina Ionescu has been slumping as an outside shooter lately, going just 8-for-34 over her last five games. Shooters have to shoot their way out of slumps, and the Sky are the absolute worst team to try and regain a 3-point rhythm against.
Offense should be much easier for Chicago. Kahleah Copper is the Sky’s leading scorer, but six different Chicago players average double digits in points. Copper’s ability to break the paint and create is the Sky's primary driver on offense, but she’s also just the first of many, many options.
The Liberty are not so lucky. If they can’t get clean looks from the perimeter, the well runs dry fast. With the Sky rested and at home, I predict a long night for the Liberty’s shooters.
Prediction: Sky -8 (-110 at Betway)
Over/Under analysis
Based on my theory of the game, the Sky should score early and often by attacking New York’s limited rim protection and, in turn, deny the Liberty any clean looks from outside. The question then becomes just how effective Chicago proves it can be at both ends.
If their scoring outweighs their defense, then the Over is the play and vice-versa for the Under. So, let’s look at some key matchup statistics. Chicago allows the second-fewest free throws of any “W” team. That compounds problems for an already paint-allergic New York squad, who has the lowest free throw rate outside of the Seattle Storm.
The Liberty, by contrast, are extremely foul prone, gifting opposing teams 20.8 free-throw attempts per game. Despite that high foul rate, the Liberty put very little pressure on the ball, as indicated by their pitifully low opposing team turnover rate.
New York also plays at one of the slowest paces in the WNBA. For a team built around its young and dynamic guards, it’s damning that they score the second-fewest fast-break points of any team.
The way to beat Chicago, or at least to score on them, is to relentlessly attack the rim. But the Liberty just aren’t built to do that.
Obviously, this New York team has had moments of offensive brilliance, particularly when Sabrina or Marine Johannes is going well. But while Sabrina is consistent, Johannes is a boom or bust player, and her complete reliance on her outside shot is a microcosm for the Liberty's shortcomings as a whole. She’s shot zero free throws in the last six games despite playing real minutes. That won’t do against this Chicago team.
Ultimately, I’m a bigger skeptic of the Liberty offense than I am of their defense. It helps that Chicago is at home, and the Under is 5-2 in the Liberty's last seven road games.
Prediction: Under 165.5 (-110 at Betway)
Best bet
The Sky score the most points in the paint of any team at 42.1 per game. Paint scoring is more reliable than 3-point shooting, which is why defending the paint is generally priority number one for any team just learning the defensive ropes. It’s also a strong reason on its own to pick the Sky tonight.
The tandem of Candace Parker and Emma Meesseman is a tough cover for any team, but particularly so for the Liberty. They have the interior scoring, but it’s also the plus passing they both provide that requires a level of off-ball awareness that New York has not consistently demonstrated.
A lot of New York’s chances in this game and this series depend on Natasha Howard and Stefanie Dolson. Howard and Dolson are really the Liberty’s only threats to score on the interior. Dolson is also familiar with what Chicago likes to run, as she was a member of the 2021 title team before leaving in free agency.
The real wild card is Betnijah Laney, who was New York’s best player last season but missed almost all of this year with a meniscus injury. Having only returned to the court on August 4, she missed all four of the prior games between Chicago and New York this season.
While I’m hopeful Laney makes a full recovery and returns to being an impact player for the Liberty, it’s too soon to have her as the deciding factor in this game.
Pick: Sky -8 (-110 at Betway)
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