Saturday, June 8, is a matchup of the WNBA’s elite as the 9-2 New York Liberty face off against the 9-0 Connecticut Sun.
My Liberty vs. Sun predictions believe the mutual familiarity, lineup versatility, and early start time augur a game where defense takes center stage and leads us to an Under. Find out more in the WNBA picks ahead!
Liberty vs Sun predictions
My best bet
Under 158.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
These teams have some of the most continuity of any in the W and have played each other a lot recently, including a close-run four-game playoff series last season.
They’ll know the rotations and tendencies on both sides, where to be, who to leave, and who to blitz, hard hedge, or trap. It’s when guesswork is taken out of the equation and thinking stops that defenses perform at their best.
New York Liberty point guard Courtney Vandersloot is also officially doubtful due to personal reasons, and her absence looms large when considering the total. While Sabrina Ionescu is a fine primary ballhandler, Sloot is one of the best floor generals to ever do it. She makes every offensive possession for the Liberty easier and slides Ionescu to her most effective off-ball attacking role.
Without Vandersloot, the Liberty offense can bog down into your turn/my turn, which is not good enough against a Connecticut Sun defense as strong as this one. It also means the Sun have quality matchup options for each of New York's stars and vice versa.
Not only can Connecticut match N.Y. size for size with traditional groups, but the Sun can play smaller with Alyssa Thomas at center to counteract any time the Liberty wants to play through Breanna Stewart at the five. Few teams have this kind of lineup versatility, and it favors the defense that neither team will ever be at a size or speed deficit.
DiJonai Carrington and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton have been arguably the two best perimeter defenders through the first quarter of the season, and each will make a dent in the other team’s offense from the wing.
Then there’s also the matter of the timing of this game at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Matinee games are tough for W players. After playing and traveling, most pro ball players are more likely to keep closer to nocturnal habits. Getting a full rhythm outside one's regular schedule can be difficult, and in such games, defense is often ahead of the offense.
The Sun and Liberty are already both Bottom 4 in pace, and it’s hard to imagine them creating extra possessions in what is functionally a morning game for them.
Liberty vs Sun same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 158.5
Brionna Jones Under 14.5 points
Sabrina Ionescu Under 2.5 threes
The Sun are at their most dynamic when they spread the floor and Thomas plays small ball five, which has in part contributed to Brionna Jones’ minutes and scoring dipping a bit this season. Jones is also a traditional big who takes 80% of her shots from 10 feet and in.
That will be tough against Jonquel Jones, as the former MVP is one of the longest, strongest, and most mobile rim protectors in the league.
Sabrina, for her part, will miss the easier attempts generated by Vandersloot, and contending with Carrington has made even the best guards wilt this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Liberty vs Sun odds
Liberty vs Sun live odds
Get the latest Liberty vs Sun WNBA odds for tonight.
Liberty vs Sun opening odds
- Spread: New York +1 (-115) | Connecticut -1 (-105)
- Moneyline: New York -110 | Connecticut -110
- Over/Under: Over 159.5 (-110) | Under 159.5 (-110)
Liberty vs Sun spread and Over/Under analysis
- There is a lack of consensus on Saturday’s spread. While most books have the undefeated Sun between -1 and -1.5 point favorites over the Liberty as of Friday evening, some are offering the Liberty at -1.5.
- The total oened at 159.5 but dipped slightly to 158.5 at most sportsbooks.
- The Under is 4-0 in New York's last four road games as well as 4-0 in the Sun’s last four games overall.
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Liberty vs Sun trend
The Under is 4-0 in Connecticut’s last four games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Sun.
Liberty vs Sun game info
| Location: | Mohegan Sun Arena, Montville, CT |
| Date: | Saturday, 6-8-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
Liberty vs Sun latest injuries
Liberty: Nyara Sabally F (Out), Courtney Vandersloot G (Doubtful).
Sun: Moriah Jefferson G (Questionable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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