Los Angeles Sparks vs Chicago Sky Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Canada the Matinee Idol

The Los Angeles Sparks hit the road for the first time in two weeks when they roll into the Windy City to face the Chicago Sky this afternoon.

Los Angeles got the best of Chicago in a 77-62 win at home on June 9, but today’s trip to Wintrust Arena not only tests the Sparks' mettle on the road but also has the alarm clocks going off early for L.A., which has to rise and shine for a 12 p.m. ET tipoff — 9 a.m. back in California.

Chicago is mired in a six-game losing slide but has played four of those contests away from home and is a much stronger team in front of the ChiTown faithful, especially on offense where it scores over nine points more per game than as a visitor.

I run down this tight spread and Over/Under total and give my best WNBA picks and predictions for Sparks at Sky on June 28.

Sparks vs Sky best odds

Sparks vs Sky picks and predictions

The Sparks backcourt continues to run with a skeleton crew. Not only is starter Lexie Brown sidelined but Los Angeles is also missing guards Layshia Clarendon and Nia Clouden. That means plenty of minutes are finding their way to Jordin Canada.

She’s taken on a bigger scoring role with Brown out of commission, averaging 14.8 points in the five games minus Brown — an uptick from the 12.3 scoring average before that stretch. Canada is shooting the ball extremely well, making 46.8% of her attempts, and is doing a fantastic job drawing contact and cashing in freebies from the foul line, going a collective 26-for-28 from the charity stripe the past five outings.

Canada’s player projections for today range from 11.03 points to 13.9 to a ceiling of 15.5. When those lower forecasts hit the board Wednesday morning, the market moved off the 13.5 which had the Over priced as high as -120 at some shops. A flood of action on the Under 13.5 bumped her scoring total down a full point to 12.5 and the Over 12.5 is now available at -102 odds.

Going against the grain (line movement) in a niche market like WNBA betting is often a recipe for disaster, but her other models are calling for more than 13 points and Canada is going to get plenty of touches with this depleted L.A. backcourt. I'm buying back that market move. 

Chicago's defense doesn't get the same lift the offense does when playing at home, lugging a 106.0 defensive rating as a host this season. The Sky give up more than 85 points per game inside Wintrust Arena where opponents shoot a league-high 46.2% from the floor.

The Sparks' sixth-year guard out of UCLA doesn’t shrink on the road like some of her L.A. teammates, averaging 15 points per road game (shooting 45%) and took the fight to Chicago in their first meeting, finishing with 16 points on 5-for-10 shooting while making all six of her free throws.

My best bet: Jordin Canada Over 12.5 points (-102 at FanDuel)

Sparks vs Sky spread and Over/Under analysis

Oddsmakers opened Chicago as a 1-point underdog at home but that has since slimmed to a pick’em at some books while others have jumped to Sky -1 as of Wednesday morning.

My WNBA power ratings pumped out a spread of Chicago -0.5 but with the Sparks still missing bodies in the backcourt, most importantly starting guard Lexie Brown, the move toward the Sky adds up with the current point spread.

Los Angeles hasn’t felt the rigors of the road in two weeks, coming into Wednesday with a -3.2 net rating away from home this season. Adding to that challenge is the matinee tip-off, which has the Sparks taking the court at 9 a.m. PT.

Chicago’s six-game losing skid started in L.A. with that 77-62 loss to the Sparks on June 9 — one of four road losses included in that slide. However, the Sky have played some of the WNBA’s top-tier teams in that span, falling to Las Vegas, Connecticut, and Washington twice. 

The Sparks aren’t on the same level as those recent foes and will face a Chicago team that ranks out No. 4 in offensive rating at home on the year, averaging 82.7 points per homestand. The Sky are 3-1-2 ATS at home heading into this afternoon.

The total hit the board at 155 points and has since jumped to as high as 157.5. The Sparks showed some offensive fight in their recent win over Dallas, scoring 93 points and cracking 80 points for just the second time in nine games.

Brown’s absence has been a big hit to this L.A. attack. The Sparks' effective field goal rate drops and their advanced offensive rating goes from 106.3 with Brown on the floor to 94.8 without. The sudden offensive output against the Wings was the first time Los Angeles played Over the total in six games — five of those with Brown sidelined due to illness.

Chicago is 6-8 Over/Under on the season and 3-3 O/U at home. The Sky run one of the slower tempos in the league, ranked No. 9 in pace rating (95.92). The Sparks aren’t that much quicker, boasting a rating of 96.68. 

These teams stayed below the closing total of 159 points in their first meeting in Los Angeles, with neither team shooting well from the field. They shot 40% or worse and were a collective 7-for-43 from beyond the arc.

Sparks vs Sky betting trend to know

The L.A. Sparks are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games following a win. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sparks vs. Sky.

Sparks vs Sky game info

Sparks vs Sky key injuries

Sparks: Lexie Brown G (Questionable), Nia Clouden G (Out), Layshia Clarendon G (Out), Katie Lou Samuelson F (Out).
Sky: Rebekah Gardner G (Out), Isabelle Harrison F (Out), Ruthy Hebard F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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