Los Angeles Sparks vs Minnesota Lynx Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Canada Going South

One team will shake off its respective losing skid when the Los Angeles Sparks visit the Minnesota Lynx on Thursday night.

Los Angeles enters the post-break slate dragging a six-game slide with it, failing to cover in each of those losses. Injuries to the Sparks’ backcourt have been the biggest catalyst for this swoon, but L.A. may get both starting guards Layshia Clarendon and Lexie Brown back in action.

As for Minnesota, it has also been slowed by the injury bug this season and hasn’t had its full starting rotation since losing center Jessica Shepard to an illness back in June. The Lynx lug a three-game slide into tonight’s home stand, including a 9-point road loss at Atlanta on Tuesday.

I size up the spread and Over/Under total for this Western Conference clash and give my best WNBA picks and predictions for Sparks at Lynx on July 20.

Sparks vs Lynx best odds

Sparks vs Lynx picks and predictions

Unlike many of her fellow Sparks guards, Jordin Canada has been able to avoid the bite of the injury bug in 2023.

She logged major minutes with the likes of Lexie Brown and Layshia Clarendon sidelined earlier this summer, but the Sparks are starting to get those backcourt bodies back and both of those starters could be in action tonight.

While Brown has been upgraded to questionable after missing 11 games due to illness, Clarendon is good to go against the Lynx after being activated this past weekend. She’ll take over a share of the ball-handling duties for Los Angeles, allowing Canada to play off the ball and utilize a career year in shooting, including a 33% clip from beyond the arc.

Canada is averaging 5.6 assists per contest and her assist prop for Thursday night is sitting at 5.5 (Under -111).

Her player projections for this road trip to Minnesota range from 4.9 to 5.4 helpers and she’s finished with six or more assists only once in the past five games. Given Canada’s player modeling, the Under 5.5 assists should be priced more in the -150 range.

Canada has also seen her minutes tick back a bit the past two outings, playing just 29 and 27 minutes in losses to Las Vegas and Phoenix, as rookie guard Zia Cooke gets extra run from head coach Curt Miller. Her floor time has spiked in July and the return of Clarendon and possibly Brown presents a bit of a log jam in the rotation. Canada’s player projections call for 27 minutes of action tonight, which is down from her season clip of 31.2 minutes per game.

In L.A.’s previous three meetings with the Lynx, Canada posted assist tallies of five, five, and eight — the latter of which came in the first game without Clarendon in lineup following her foot injury. Canada did some damage as a scorer in those previous matchups and I could see her opting for shots rather than passing it off tonight.

My best bet: Jordin Canada Under 5.5 assists (-111 at FanDuel)

Sparks vs Lynx spread and Over/Under analysis

The WNBA odds opened with Minnesota as a 2.5-point home favorite and that spread has puffed up to Lynx -3.5 as of Thursday afternoon. The vig on that line is as high as -115, so a move to Minny -4 could come before injury updates from the Sparks for this 8 p.m. ET tipoff.

My WNBA power ratings produced a spread of Lynx -3.14 based on current player availability, but the status of Brown will impact where this line closes.

She’s been out of action for 11 games and is a sparkplug for this Los Angeles offense, averaging 13.3 points through just nine games in 2023. The Sparks own a +2.8 offensive rating with Brown on the floor compared to -8.5 with her on the sidelines.

Brown isn’t the only member of the Los Angeles backcourt dealing with health issues. The Sparks will be without top reserve Chiney Ogwumike for Thursday and continue to play without backup guard Nia Clouden.

However, the team did activate Layshia Clarendon this past weekend and welcomes her back as a much-needed ball handler to this decimated guard corps. The Sparks offense has produced a league-low offensive rating during this six-game stumble, averaging less than 76 points in that span.

Minnesota has dealt with its share of injuries and ailments in 2023. The Lynx are still without starting center Jessica Shepard (illness) and are missing backup guard Rachel Banham, but could welcome back reserve forward Aerial Powers to the frontcourt.

The Lynx lost their first game back from the break and after a very solid start to July, in which the team went 3-0 SU and ATS and extended a five-game winning streak (5-0 ATS), Minnesota has run into some stronger competition with losses to Atlanta, Dallas and Las Vegas — all of which rank in the top half of my WNBA power ratings.

Defense remains the issue for the Lynx, sitting second last in advanced rating. Minnesota is allowing more than 85 points against per contest while watching foes shoot better than 45% from the field, including a damning 9.7 3-pointers allowed per outing.

The Lynx have won all three meetings with L.A. this season, but only one of those victories came with Brown in the lineup for Los Angeles: a 91-86 home win on June 11. That contest played Over the closing total of 159.5 points while the two most recent run-ins stayed below numbers of 160.5 and 157.5 points.

Tonight’s total hit the board at 162 points and has climbed as high as 163.5 points. The Sparks are 10-10 Over/Under on the season despite his recent offensive brownout, due in part to an equally ugly defense (4-2 O/U in last six games).

Minnesota owns a 10-11 O/U count on the season but its defensive shortcomings along with the return of star rookie Diamond Miller to the lineup has helped pump out a 5-2 O/U mark in the past seven showings going back to June 25.

Sparks vs Lynx betting trend to know

The Over is 5-1 in Lynx’s last six games versus a conference opponent. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sparks vs. Lynx.

Sparks vs Lynx game info

Sparks vs Lynx key injuries

Sparks: Lexie Brown G (Questionable), Nia Clouden G (Out), Chiney Ogwumike F (Out).
Lynx: Jessica Shepard C (Out), Aerial Powers F (Questionable), Rachel Banham G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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