With just a single loss since the start of August, the New York Liberty are rolling — and they bring a seven-game win streak into tonight’s matchup with the L.A. Sparks, who are still fighting to sneak into the playoffs.
The Liberty, chasing the No.1 seed, climbed to 31-7 with Tuesday’s 94-93 victory over the Dallas Wings, as Breanna Stewart put on a 40-point clinic and broke the WNBA’s single-season scoring record.
While New York has gone 9-1 in its last 10 games, life has been bumpier for the banged-up Sparks, who have everything at stake and enter tonight's game as 12.5-point WNBA odds underdogs.
Find out more in our free WNBA Picks and Predictions for Sparks vs. Liberty on September 7.
Sparks vs Liberty best odds
Sparks vs Liberty picks and predictions
While this is the penultimate game of the season for both teams, it’s refreshing to still have real stakes on the line. And it’s desperation mode for the Sparks — the Sky hold the tiebreaker for the No.8 seed, so L.A. will likely need to win both of its remaining contests to have a shot at leapfrogging Chicago.
But I’m not buying the narrative that the Sparks will find an extra gear with their season on the line. L.A. has a lengthy injury list and, while there’s a decent chance that Nneka Ogwumike and Karlie Samuelson will be active, it’s hard to feel great about the visitors’ 6-12 road record.
More than that, the Sparks are facing a red-hot Liberty team that’s ready to pounce for the top seed if the Las Vegas Aces slip up this weekend. New York started September with two blowout wins before a nail-biter in Dallas on Tuesday — and Stewart is coming off her fourth game of the year with 40 or more points.
The hosts are back to full health and have covered the spread in their past four games at Barclays Center, while the Sparks are 1-4 ATS in their last five outings on one day’s rest. That feels ominous for the visitors, who lost 90-76 to the Connecticut Sun on Tuesday night.
With L.A.’s injury woes, coupled with New York winning by a double-digit margin in 10 of its last 13 games, I’m laying the points with the Liberty and counting on another dynamic offensive performance.
My best bet: Liberty -12.5 (-110 at bet365)
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Sparks vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis
The Liberty are -900 favorites tonight as they look for an eighth consecutive win, and they’re 14-4 on their home floor this year. That points to a lopsided contest here, even with the Sparks fueled by being in must-win territory.
I’ve laid out the ATS case for New York above, and the hosts were boosted by Sabrina Ionescu’s return from a calf injury on Tuesday. Look for the Liberty to take a cautious approach with her minutes tonight, especially with Stewart in such dominant form, including a 14-for-25 shooting performance against the Wings in midweek.
The Sparks have lost both meetings between these teams this season by a single-digit margin, but it just feels like this L.A. roster is running out of gas (and healthy bodies) down the stretch.
The biggest challenge for the visitors is going to be keeping pace with the New York offense. You have to go back to August 17 for the last time that the Liberty scored fewer than 85 points, while the Sparks have been held under that total in each of their last six contests.
The trends for both teams hint at the Under, which is 6-0 in the Sparks’ last six games after an ATS loss and 4-1 in the hosts’ last five matchups against a team with a losing record. Four of the past five meetings have cashed in the Under.
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Sparks vs Liberty betting trend to know
New York takes care of business against weaker teams. The Liberty are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against teams with a losing record. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sparks vs. Liberty.
Sparks vs Liberty game info
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY |
| Date: | Thursday, September 7, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Prime Video |
Sparks vs Liberty key injuries
Sparks: Nneka Ogwumike F (Questionable), Karlie Samuelson G (Questionable), Chiney Ogwumike F (Out), Lexie Brown G (Out), Nia Clouden G (Out), Katie Lou Samuelson F (Out).
Liberty: No injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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