The New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx mix it up in the Big Apple for the second time in three days Tuesday.
Minnesota won Sunday’s contest, holding off New York’s late rally to secure an 84-77 victory as a 2.5-point road underdog for just its third victory of the season (two of which have come versus N.Y.). Bookies have pegged tonight’s spread at that same spot, with the Liberty laying -2.5 and hoping star guard Sabrina Ionescu can continue her red-hot play.
Check out our free WNBA picks and predictions for Lynx at Liberty on June 7.
Lynx vs Liberty odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Lynx vs Liberty predictions
Predictions made on 6/7/2022 at 12:25 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Lynx vs Liberty info
• Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
• Date: Tuesday, June 7, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS, Bally Sports North
Lynx vs Liberty betting preview
Key injuries
Lynx: Natalie Achonwa F (Out), Damiris Dantas F (Out), Moriah Jefferson G (Out), Odyssey Sims G (Out), Napheesa Collier F (Out).
Liberty: Betnijah Laney G (Out), Jocelyn Willoughby F (Out), DiDi Richards G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Lynx are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as road underdogs. Find more WNBA betting trends for Lynx vs. Liberty.
Lynx vs Liberty picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Both the Liberty and Lynx have seen their lineups decimated by early-season injuries, leading to lackluster results. However, New York still has an offensive sparkplug in guard Sabrina Ionescu, who has caught fire over the past three games after a slow start to the 2022 campaign.
Ionescu has put up scores of 23, 24, and, most recently, 31 points against Minnesota on the weekend. She was the driving force behind New York’s late rally and made up for a terrible outside shooting performance from the Liberty, who finished a collective 4-for-30 from beyond the arc.
Despite that horrific effort from distance, N.Y. only lost by seven points and had the lead cut to one point with four minutes remaining in the game, but ran out of steam in those closing 240 seconds. Minnesota needed one of its best offensive games of the season to secure just its third win, shooting 54% from deep and 49% from the floor.
Before Sunday’s ugly loss, the Liberty had won two straight over Washington and Indiana and put in a valiant effort on the road in Seattle on May 27, losing in overtime but covering as 8.5-point underdogs. New York’s rotation and team dynamic have been thrown for a loop since losing standout guard Betnijah Laney right before a May 24 loss at Minnesota, but Ionescu seems to be answering the call.
The Liberty’s improved chemistry cut down on the turnover troubles plaguing the team, with just 11 giveaways on Sunday and an average of 11.7 over the past three games. That’s a massive improvement on the 19.3 turnovers per outing in the opening eight games of the schedule, which led to 21.1 average points against. Those points allowed off turnovers have shrunk to just 11.7 over the past three outings.
After losing the first two matchups with the Lynx this season, Tuesday’s third and final meeting is a big pride spot for the Liberty, who are getting past those early injuries – with the help of Ionescu - and playing some solid basketball.
Prediction: Liberty -2.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
A thin Liberty lineup has been susceptible to defending the perimeter, missing the versatile length of Jocelyn Willoughby and DiDi Richards when closing out on shooters.
Sunday’s bad defensive performance against the Lynx was helped along by early foul trouble to Rebecca Allen, limiting New York’s best healthy defender to just 22 minutes. The Liberty do have the luxury of 6-foot-9 center Han Xu to protect the paint. She came off the bench for a solid 23 minutes on Sunday and was a key part of New York’s late surge.
While Han’s offensive contributions can’t be counted on, having her patrolling the interior and challenging shots allows Sandy Brondello to be more aggressive with her perimeter defense, getting their heels above the 3-point arc and closing the space on outside shooters.
As for New York’s attack, the pace of this offense has dipped from 96.0 to 92.0, putting greater emphasis on isolation with Ionescu at the wheel. Minnesota tried to bully her with quick pressure pick ups as she crossed over half, which New York countered with high screens. Ionescu had success blowing past that pressure and getting inside, either scoring at the hoop or finding teammates in space.
New York can’t afford to shoot its way out of this slump, so expect the Liberty to be more selective and the Lynx to pad the interior and beg N.Y. to fire from outside. This total has dipped a full point since opening at 159.5.
Prediction: Under 158.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
Best bet
New York has got to come out aggressive on defense and not allow Minnesota shooters Rebecca Allen and Kayla McBride to get into rhythm from outside. That pair combined for 45 points on 16-for-30 shooting from the floor, including a perfect 6-for-6 from 3-point land in Sunday’s win.
The Liberty find themselves trailing after the opening quarter far too much, owning an average margin of -3.2 in those opening 10 minutes of pay. New York scores just over 16 points per first quarter and shoots a dismal 35.5% from the field in those initial frames.
Sunday’s opening quarter saw a combined 26 points scored between these teams, which followed just 29 1Q points in New York’s matchup with Washington on Friday. The Liberty and Fever also combined for 37 points in the opening frame last Wednesday. New York, which ranks fourth in 1Q defensive rating, posting a 66.1 metric in the first quarter of those last three games.
Books have the derivative 1Q total at 39.5 points for tonight’s return meeting in Brooklyn – a simple four-way slice of the overall Over/Under. We’ll take those lower-scoring 1Q trends and go Under that number.
Pick: Under 39.5 First Quarter (-110 at bet365)
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