If your favorite basketball teams growing up were Pat Riley’s New York Knicks or the Bad Boy Detroit Pistons, then tonight’s WNBA matchup between the Minnesota Lynx and the Los Angeles Sparks is must watch. These teams are absolute bruisers.
Stakes are high for Lynx vs. Sparks, as both teams find themselves on the outside looking in of the playoff picture with single-digit games remaining on the schedule.
Our WNBA picks and predictions have Minnesota coming out on top of this old-school showdown.
Lynx vs Sparks odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The spread has seen significant movement, with the Los Angeles Sparks opening as -1 point favorites but now listed as +1 dogs at most books. The total opened at 167.5 and has seen a small decline to 166.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full WNBA odds before placing your bets.
Lynx vs Sparks predictions
Predictions made on 7/31/2022 at 2:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Lynx vs Sparks info
• Location: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Sunday, July 31, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBA TV
Lynx vs Sparks betting preview
Key injuries
Lynx: Jessica Shepherd C (Probable).
Sparks: Lexie Brown G (Questionable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Sparks are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Lynx vs. Sparks.
Lynx vs Sparks picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Both the Minnesota Lynx and Los Angeles Sparks are an uninspiring 5-5 in their last 10 games, but don’t let that fool you into thinking they’re evenly matched. In that 10-game stretch, the Sparks' best wins are against other sub-.500 teams, while the Lynx can boast wins over the Las Vegas Aces and the Chicago Sky, two of the best teams in the WNBA.
These two teams build their games from the inside out on both ends, but the Lynx are much more successful at actually doing so. Minnesota, fitting for a team that prizes paint presence above all else, has the second-best rebounding rate in the league. The Sparks theoretically have the same aims, but their rebounding ranks third worst.
They’re both Top 4 in points in the paint, but with the recent departure of Liz Cambage, there’s good reason to think the Sparks are going to see a significant decline in that area. Los Angeles does force a good number of turnovers and scores well off them (something the Lynx are vulnerable to) but that alone is not enough to tip the scale in their favor.
While the Sparks seemingly find ways to become more combustible on and off the court every week, the Lynx have quietly been competitive. They’re 5-1 against the spread in their last six road games, which contrasted with the Sparks' uninspiring 1-6 ATS record in their last seven, all point to Minnesota pulling this one out.
Lock this line in now before it moves further in Minnesota’s favor than it already has.
Prediction: Lynx -1 (-110 at Betway)
Over/Under analysis
When I said these teams are old school, it’s both a compliment and a criticism. They’re physical, they play tough around the basket, and Sylvia Fowles and Nneka Ogwumike are two of the best to ever do it.
However, they also leave a lot of points on the board with their unwillingness to shoot a competitive amount of 3-pointers, something that is probably going to be exacerbated by playing each other. In a normal game, they both dare their opponents to shoot threes, but against each other, they’re going to find few willing takers.
The Sparks shoot fewer threes than any other team in the WNBA and will shoot even fewer against Minnesota if Lexie Brown isn’t good to go. Even if Brown is cleared to play at the last moment, shooters generate power through their legs, and an ankle that isn’t 100% will always be a hindrance.
Less shooting means less spacing, and that plays right into the Lynx’s hands. If you can’t spread the Lynx out, they will shut your offense down more often than not.
Both teams want to score in the paint as well as emphasize guarding it and given that these are not top-tier offenses even at what they do well, this is likely to be a low-scoring game.
Prediction: Under 166.5 (-110 at Betway)
Best bet
Records can be deceiving. At 11-19, the Lynx have substantially underperformed their point differential of -1.4 and have an expected win/loss record of 14-16.
The Sparks are just the opposite, having squeaked out an extra win over their expected total their 10th place net rating is much more representative of their caliber of play than their 12-16 record.
The Lynx have largely been the better team between the two all season long even if it hasn’t played that way out in the standings, and particularly matched up with each other, their similar strengths and weaknesses point strongly to a Lynx cover.
Pick: Lynx -1 (-110 at Betway)
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