The Minnesota Lynx just won their first Commissioner’s Cup, doing so in emphatic fashion on the road on Tuesday against arguably the best team in the WNBA. A letdown at the Dallas Wings would not be too surprising, even if WNBA odds favor the Lynx by nearly double digits.
But some things extend beyond letdowns, and betting on the greatest Minnesota strength will lead our Lynx vs. Wings predictions and WNBA picks before tip-off on Thursday, June 27.
Lynx vs Wings predictions
My best bet
Arike Ogunbowale Under 2.5 threes (-115 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The Minnesota Lynx defense remains underappreciated. Giving up 89 points to the Liberty on Tuesday did not help that, though it was actually a defensive masterclass in parts.
New York scored 10 points in the third quarter, giving Minnesota a lead it would not relinquish for the final 14:27. And anyone who watched the Commissioner’s Cup championship game knows eight of the Liberty’s points came in the final 40 seconds out of desperation, when the Lynx defense could relax a bit.
Realizing that, New York scored 31 points in the first 19:20 of the second half. Minnesota’s defense remains underappreciated.
It is most effective along the perimeter. Bridget Carleton and Kayla McBride make life miserable for star guards.
In their last 10 games, excluding their most recent meeting with the Dallas Wings, the opponent’s best shooter has gone 16 of 72 from from deep. Arike Ogunbowale was sidelined by injury the last time these teams met, and without Ogunbowale in the lineup, Dallas has no other worthwhile shooter. No one else on the roster averages so much as one 3-pointer per game. No one else takes at least two 3-pointers per game while shooting better than 30%.
When Ogunbowale was out, the Wings had no offensive player for Carleton and McBride to worry about.
Those other nine games featured the likes of Sabrina Ionescu going 2-for-11 from deep, Allisha Gray going 0-for-8, and Jewell Loyd going 1-for-9. These are some of the best shooters in the WNBA, all stymied by Minnesota’s defense.
Ogunbowale did play against the Lynx on June 2, going 2 of 5 from deep. That is about her only middling performance this season. She has been very much boom or bust. When Ogunbowale otherwise falls short of this prop, she has shot 4-for-43 in six games. When she has cleared this prop, she has shot 39-for-89 in eight games.
Against the stingiest 3-point defense in the league, it is hard to imagine Ogunbowale going boom.
Lynx vs Wings same-game parlay (SGP)
Arike Ogunbowale Under 2.5 made 3s
Wings 1H +7
Wings team total Under 75.5
Minnesota should be in for a letdown. Coming off a road win on Tuesday night to clinch a deserved in-season title and then turning around less than 39 hours later in Dallas may be too much to ask. A three-bucket first-half spread makes little sense as a result.
The game as a whole should be played slow. Afternoon games tend to mess with players’ routines, which will not help the cause. But more than that, all the Lynx will need is one engaged defender to bother the Wings’ offense all day.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Lynx vs Wings odds
Lynx vs Wings live odds
Get the latest Lynx vs Wings WNBA odds for tonight.
Lynx vs Wings opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota -9.5 | Dallas +9.5
- Moneyline: Minnesota -550 | Dallas +400
- Over/Under: Over 162.5 | Under 162.5
Lynx vs Wings spread and Over/Under analysis
- Following the Commissioner’s Cup win, Minnesota opened Wednesday morning as a 9.5-point favorite, a number that climbed to -10 by Wednesday’s lunch.
- Without Ogunbowale, Dallas was a 14.5-point road underdog on June 17. The change in homecourt would have shifted that number to about +9 or +9.5. Does that mean Ogunbowale does not impact the spread at all? No. It means the Wings have been downgraded in the 10 days since, while the Lynx have also been upgraded.
- The total opened at some books as high as 162.5, while others preferred 161.5.
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Lynx vs Wings trend
Dallas is 1-9 against the spread in its last 10 games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Lynx vs. Wings.
Lynx vs Wings game info
| Location: | College Park Center, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, 6-27-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally North, Bally Southwest |
Lynx vs Wings latest injuries
Lynx: D. Miller (Out).
Wings: M. Siegrist (Out), J. Brown (Out), A. Kuier (Out), S. Sabally (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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