It’s not exactly the matchup the Phoenix Mercury want when trying to snap a 3-game losing skid.
They’ll be in Minnesota to take on a Lynx team that’s won nine of the last 10 head-to-head matchups with Phoenix.
How will that factor into our Mercury vs Lynx predictions? Find out in my WNBA picks for Friday, May 31.
Mercury vs Lynx predictions
My best bet
Lynx -7 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Phoenix’s three-game win streak went up in smoke, getting blasted by Dallas, blown out by undefeated Connecticut by 23, and most recently, falling by three to the New York Liberty.
The Mercury are struggling defensively, 10th in the league in efficiency while sitting second-last in points allowed at 85.7 points per game.
Offensively, Phoenix is scoring 80.9 points per game (8th) but is struggling to shoot the ball, connecting at a 39.9% from the field. They are one of two teams that are shooting sub-40% in the league so far this year.
They are also next to last in points scored in the paint (29.4) and fast-break points (7.9).
The Minnesota Lynx have opened with a 4-2 record to start the year, and they’ve been getting it done on both ends of the court: Minnesota is the only team in the W to rank Top 3 in points scored and points allowed.
Minnesota is the top shooting team in the league, first from the field at a 45.4% clip, while ringing it up from distance at 37.8%.
They are coming off an 80-66 loss to the Aces – Minnesota’s only two losses on the year are to the undefeated and first-place Sun, and second-place Las Vegas.
The last four home games against the Mercury haven’t been that close, with the Lynx covering Friday’s 7-point line in all four.
Minnesota has won three of them by double digits, and the fourth was a nine-point win. The Lynx’s last nine wins over the Mercury have been by 10 or more points.
This looks like more of the same on Friday night.
Mercury vs Lynx same-game parlay (SGP)
Lynx -6.5
Napheesa Collier Over 21.5 points
Kahleah Copper Under 23.5 points
It’s been a dynamite start to the year for Napheesa Collier. The Lynx forward has led the team in scoring in four of the first six games of the season. At 22.2 points per game, she’s fourth in the W in scoring.
Even more impressive, Collier has led the team in rebounding in every game, and her 10.8 boards per game is third in the league.
That’s where we’ll focus our attention on. Last season, Collier had double-doubles in two games against the Mercury. She went for 22 points and 16 boards on September 3, while dropping 12 and 12 on July 7.
Over four games, Collier averaged 11 rebounds per contest. Look for her to clean the glass again Friday night.
Speaking of hot starts, Kahleah Copper is third in scoring at 24.7 points per game, but she might struggle against the Lynx D.
Copper came out the gate gangbusters this season averaging 29.2 points through the first five games, including three 30+ point efforts.
However, she’s been held to 27 points across the last two games by the Liberty and Sun – the top two teams in points allowed this season.
Third on that list? The Lynx. Until Copper proves she can light up the top defenses in the league, I’m going Under the total.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mercury vs Lynx odds
Mercury vs Lynx live odds
Get the latest Mercury vs Lynx WNBA odds for tonight.
Mercury vs Lynx opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix +7 | Minnesota -7
- Moneyline: Phoenix +253 | Minnesota -301
- Over/Under: Over 165 | Under 165
Mercury vs Lynx spread and Over/Under analysis
- Minnesota is 5-1-0 ATS this season.
- The Mercury at 1-3-0 ATS in their last four overall.
- The Over has cashed in six of the last seven head-to-head matchups
- Phoenix has gone Under the total in three of its last four.
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Mercury vs Lynx trend
Minnesota is 9-1-0 against the spread vs Phoenix in the last 10 meetings. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Lynx.
Mercury vs Lynx game info
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Friday, May 31, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Fubo Sports |
Mercury vs Lynx latest injuries
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