Mercury vs Mystics Picks and Predictions: Phoenix Pummeled By Washington Defense

The Phoenix Mercury venture away from home for the first time this month, visiting a Washington Mystics squad hoping to have star forward Elena Delle Donne back in action Sunday.

Delle Donne left last Wednesday’s clash with Chicago due to tightness in her surgically repaired back and sat out the following game vs. Minnesota for rest. She’s listed as probable to play in this non-conference contest and has Washington as big as an 8-point home favorite.

Here are our free WNBA betting picks and predictions for Mercury vs. Mystics on June 12.

Mercury vs Mystics odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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Mercury vs Mystics predictions

• Prediction: Mystics -7.5 (-120)
• Prediction: Under 160 (-110)
• Best bet: Under 160 (-110)

Predictions made on 6/12/2022 at 9:40 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Mercury vs Mystics info

• Location: Entertainment & Sports Arena, Washington, DC
• Date: Sunday, June 12, 2022
• Tip-off: 6:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Arizona, NBCS-DC

Mercury vs Mystics betting preview

Key injuries

Mercury: Kia Nurse G (Out), Brittney Griner C (Out), Sophie Cunningham F (Out).
Mystics: Elena Delle Donne F (Probable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 19-7 in Mystics’ last 26 games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Mystics.

Mercury vs Mystics picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

A homebound schedule has helped the Mercury round into form over the past three games, boasting wins over Atlanta and Los Angeles while taking Connecticut to the wire in a four-point loss. That pair of recent wins snapped a seven-game losing skid for Phoenix, with five of those defeats coming on the road.

The Mercury kick the tires on their modest turnaround with a cross-country trip to the nation’s capital. Phoenix owns a net rating of -0.6 at home, headlined by a 107.5 offensive rating, but watch that advanced metric plummet to a league-worst -12.6 as a visitor. 

That home-loving scoring attack, which puts up an average of 88 points as host (second highest), musters only 73.5 points per road game and lugs a WNBA-low offensive rating of 91.5 with them on the road. This drastic home/away split gets exposed Sunday facing one of the best defenses in the league.

Washington boasts a defensive rating of 96.7 in D.C. and gives up just 75.4 points on 43% shooting per home contest. The Mystics are also a much better team with Delle Donne in the lineup. Before last Wednesday’s game with Chicago, in which Delle Donne lasted only 7:23 of floor time due to her back flaring up, Washington allowed just 71 points against when she was in the lineup vs. 77.25 points per game when she was not.

The Mystics also have plenty of punching power with the basketball and flexed that offensive depth in their past two games. With Delle Donne limited, Washington went toe-to-toe with the reigning NBA champs and scored 84 points on Chicago, getting 11 or more points for four different players.

That depth showed up in Friday’s 76-59 road win over the Lynx, with Myisha Hines-Allen leading the way with 17 points, Ariel Atkins tossing in 12, and the Mystics bench coming through with 25 points in support. 

With the former MVP expected back in action — averaging a team-high 15.8 points per game — and the Mystics defense testing the road readiness of the Mercury, we’ll lay the lumber with the home side Sunday. 

Prediction: Mystics -7.5 (-120 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

A big part of Phoenix’s turnaround the past couple of games has been on defense. The team has posted a defensive rating of 101.9 over the wins against L.A. and Atlanta — an improvement over the beefy rating of 109.8 during that seven-game skid. 

While the Mercury still miss center Brittney Griner in the middle, they have been able to get healthier with Diana Taurasi and Tina Charles on the floor together. Phoenix took a hit with tweener Sophie Cunningham going down with an elbow injury against the Sparks, but got solid defensive work from scrappy sub Shey Peddy.

Part of the Mystics’ defensive success is their methodical tempo on offense, which ranks out as the slowest pace in the WNBA (93.44). Washington limits its foes’ touches on the basketball with that plodding approach, giving up just 64.5 field goal attempts per game and pushing those looks to the outside.

The Mystics don’t allow anything easy, holding opponents to just 30.3 points in the paint and a mere 23.1 FGA from inside eight feet of the hoop. Washington will push the Mercury to the outside and test their road shooting stripes, with Phoenix’s 3-point shooting success falling from 33.5% to 31.3% on the road.

Prediction: Under 160 (-110 at PointsBet)

Best bet

The Mercury have dropped their tempo the past two outings, posting a pace rating of just 95.4 compared to the 97.71 rating during the team’s extended losing skid. 

Phoenix has gone smaller, rolling out more four-guard sets and looking to work the ball around and create off dribble penetration. That aggressive approach has been spearheaded by the guard combo of Skylar Diggins-Smith and Diamond DeShields, who are getting inside for closer shots in the paint or kick outs to the wing.

However, Washington is one of the best teams in the WNBA at defending the interior, and Phoenix could find itself settling for shots from the perimeter late into the shot clock if it can’t crack the Mystics' defense. 

Washington is the best Under bet in the league at 3-11 Over/Under. And with the Mystics’ plodding pace, paint protection, and Phoenix’s shaky road woes, we like this final to finish below the total of 160 points.

Pick: Under 160 (-110 at PointsBet)

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