The Phoenix Mercury and Washington Mystics needed overtime to settle up on Sunday. The non-conference foes go at it again in the nation’s capital Tuesday, with the Mystics hosting the Mercury as 7.5-point home favorites.
Washington took on Phoenix this weekend without the help of former league MVP Elena Delle Donne, who was a late scratch due to battling back tightness. Delle Donne was probable for that first meeting and is listed as such again tonight, with her status having a huge impact on the outcome for WNBA bettors.
Check out our free WNBA picks and predictions for Mercury vs. Mystics on June 14.
Mercury vs Mystics odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Mercury vs Mystics predictions
Predictions made on 6/14/2022 at 11:14 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Mercury vs Mystics info
• Location: St. Elizabeths East Entertainment and Sports Arena, Washington, DC
• Date: Tuesday, June 14, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Mercury vs Mystics betting preview
Key injuries
Mercury: Sophie Cunningham F (Out), Brittney Griner C (Out), Kia Nurse G (Out).
Mystics: Elena Delle Donne F (Probable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Mystics are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as home favorites. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Mystics.
Mercury vs Mystics picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Washington was an 8-point home chalk with Delle Donne expected to play Sunday, and that line quickly sunk to as low as -6 about 25 minutes before tipoff when it was announced she would sit out. The current spread for today’s contest was as low as -6.5 but the market consensus has slid it back to the opening line of -7.5.
Is that early action getting out ahead of any updates on Delle Donne or were the Mystics priced wrong to begin with, ahead of the Mercury’s 99-90 OT victory? Probably a little of both.
Outside of its opponent being down a star player, Phoenix performed very well on Sunday, and has now strung together three straight wins after a seven-game losing skid plagued it in the spring. It’s 3-1 against the spread in its past four outings after starting the year 2-6 ATS.
The Mercury have gotten healthier and have cooked up chemistry with this current rotation, averaging 89.5 points on 46% shooting over the past four contests vs. just 76 points per game on 41% shooting in the first six games of that slump.
Their guard-heavy attack got a combined 60 points from the trio of Skylar Diggins-Smith, Diamond DeShields, and Diana Taurasi this past weekend, and even with Washington potentially at full strength, Phoenix’s fight will keep it closer than this current spread.
Keep tabs on any line movement if you’re thinking about laying the other side with Washington, as the market will know if Delle Donne is in or out before the news wires do. She took part in pregame shoot-around before Sunday but that light work was enough to aggravate her surgically repaired back and make her a sudden scratch.
With Delle Donne’s durability in question, we’ll lean to the healthier — and hotter — side.
Prediction: Mercury +7.5 (-110 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
The Over/Under outcome for this return contest is really tied to the health of Delle Donne.
She did take part in pregame shoot-around Sunday and has now had three days between contests to rest her surgically repaired back. When she’s in the lineup, not only does it give Washington some crucial scoring punch up front, but also drastically changes how the Mystics defend.
Heading into last Friday’s tilt with Minnesota, in which Delle Donne lasted about seven minutes before leaving the game with back soreness, Washington allowed just 71 points against when she was in the lineup vs. 77.25 points when she was not. With the star forward out Sunday, the Mystics allowed 85 points in regulation and watched Phoenix knock down 51% of its shots.
With Delle Donne, Washington also runs much bigger offensively and can bully a Phoenix rotation that is missing plenty of size with Brittney Griner trapped in Russia, and Sophie Cunningham out with an elbow ailment. The Mystics can control the tempo and interior as well as beat up Phoenix on the glass for extra possessions and second-chance buckets. That means scoring close to the hoop and leaving the Mercury to inbound the ball on most possessions.
Sunday’s game featured 18 turnovers from Washington, which got the motor going in terms of transition for a slicker Mercury lineup which produced 21 points off those mistakes, and helped put some easy buckets on the board.
The Mystics are the most methodical offense in the WNBA, and with their standout player “probably” back and the team trimming down those turnovers (Mystics third-lowest turnover average), Phoenix won’t see nearly as many easy makes or come close to the possessions they had Sunday. Again… if Delle Donne plays.
Sunday’s total sat around 160 points and books are making a bit of a knee-jerk adjustment to Tuesday’s number, opening it at 164.5 based on Sunday’s final. I expect Washington to set the pace for this second of back-to-back meetings — a pace that has produced a 4-11 Over/Under count this season.
Prediction: Under 165 (-110 at PointsBet)
Best bet
The resurgent Mercury have come out swinging over their past four games, owning a plus/minus of +5.0 in the opening quarter.
Phoenix was up 23-16 on Washington after 10 minutes Sunday and has won each of the opening frames over their last four outings, averaging 21 points for and checking foes for just 16 points against.
The Mercury bring the heat from the tip, forcing a total of 21 turnovers in those 40 minutes of 1Q action, which has built a defensive rating of 75.3 in that segmented stretch.
The Mystics are pretty slow going to begin with, boasting a plus/minus of +0.9 in first quarters on the year. Washington is 2-3 straight up in June, and is averaging 19.2 points per 1Q in that stretch while giving up 20.2 points against.
Pick: Under 41.5 first-quarter total (-105 at Caesars Sportsbook)
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