The Phoenix Mercury will be without All-WNBA center Brittney Griner for the fifth consecutive game but bring a 3-2 record into tonight’s matchup with the undefeated Connecticut Sun.
The Mercury are winning games playing fast and loose, and my Mercury vs. Sun predictions and WNBA picks expect the running and gunning to continue tonight when the Mercury meet the Sun on Tuesday, May 28.
Mercury vs Sun predictions
My best bet
Mercury +8 (-114 at FanDuel)
My analysis
All-WNBA center Brittney Griner breaking her toe was a huge blow to the Phoenix Mercury.
In Griner’s absence, Phoenix has deployed a small-ball lineup with veteran guards Kahleah Cooper, Sophie Cunningham, and Diana Taurasi leading the way; the trio is draining 40% or better from downtown while offseason acquisition Natasha Cloud is dropping a shade under nine dimes.
Their small-ball lineup seems content scoring three points to their opponents' two and is off to a 3-2 record against stiff competition, including a road victory over two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces.
Those difficult early games and the decision to run and gun should prepare Phoenix for tonight’s difficult clash with the Connecticut Sun. The W’s lone unbeaten team is three nights removed from an 86-82 away victory at Chicago but for the fourth time this season, the Sun failed to cover the spread.
Connecticut has enjoyed great play from veteran forwards DeWanna Bronner and Alyssa Thomas while third-year guard DiJonai Carrington has excelled on both ends of the floor. The Sun is physical and play at a snail's pace; they have turnover issues and their inability to knock down the triple (28%) or defend it well (35%) is why they don’t cover.
The Sun are undefeated, but they haven’t played anyone other than Minnesota. Connecticut hasn’t covered the number against above .500 teams and won’t cover against Phoenix. The Sun bigs seem bothered by faster-playing teams that shoot triples and Phoenix plays faster and shoots more threes than anyone else.
They're content giving up two points inside without Griner and will cover thanks to its good ball movement, timely steals, and by drilling 38% of their 32 triple attempts.
Mercury vs Sun same-game parlay (SGP)
Mercury +8
Natasha Cloud Over 6.5 assists
Diana Taurasi Over 15.5 points
I like the Mercury to cover mainly because of the exceptional guard play from Cloud and Taurasi.
The 41-year-old Taurasi is having a homecoming of sorts (she starred at UConn) and is off to a terrific start. The W’s all-time leading scorer has cleared her scoring number in three of her five games on a career-best 42.7% shooting from downtown.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mercury vs Sun odds
Mercury vs Sunlive odds
Get the latest Mercury vs. Sun WNBA odds for tonight.
Mercury vs Sun opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix +6.5 (-108) | Connecticut -6.5 (-114)
- Moneyline: Phoenix +270 | Connecticut -320
- Over/Under: Over 164 | Under 164
Mercury vs Sun spread and Over/Under analysis
- Connecticut opened at -6.5 (-110) and the markets reacted strongly. After fierce trading pushed the number as high as -8 (-106), it's settled at -7.5.
- The Mercury will be without guard Rebecca Allen and that's likely the cause for the line swinging the Sun’s way.
- Over/Under markets opened as low as Over 164 (-110) but those markets have shifted to O/U 164.5 (-110) across the market.
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Mercury vs Sun trend
The Mercury is 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs Sun.
Mercury vs Sun game info
| Location: | Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT |
| Date: | Tuesday, May 28, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBSSN |
Mercury vs Sun latest injuries
Mercury: Brittany Griner C (Out), Sug Sutton F (Out).
Sun: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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