Minnesota Lynx vs Seattle Storm Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Miller Steals the Show

The Minnesota Lynx drew first blood in the opening game of this home-and-home set with the Seattle Storm but are road underdogs with this rivalry swinging to the Emerald City on Thursday.

Minnesota edged Seattle in a 104-93 shootout on Tuesday, covering as 4-point home chalk. With the Storm back home, they’re giving the points for just the third time this season.

Seattle has been one of the surprise moneymakers for WNBA odds so far, going 8-5-1 ATS overall, but that has more to do with the sizable underdog spreads given to them earlier in the year. The Storm started 2023 on a 4-1-1 ATS run but have since gone 4-4 against the spread.

I explore the spread and Over/Under total for this Western Conference clash and give my WNBA picks and predictions for Lynx at Storm on June 29.

Lynx vs Storm best odds

Lynx vs Storm picks and predictions

Aaliyah Boston may be the frontrunner to win WNBA Rookie of the Year, but had she not been sidelined for most of June, Lynx guard Diamond Miller would absolutely be in the mix for that award.

Miller injured her ankle on May 30, just as she was starting to settle into the pro game. She returned to the floor against Seattle on Tuesday and looked fantastic in the win, scoring a career-high 18 points on 8-for-13 shooting over 31 minutes of floor time.

That high in points, shots, and floor time sets a very high ceiling for today’s return meeting with one of the softest defenses in the league.

Player projections for Miller are a bit tempered, with limited data to run with. Miller’s forecasts call for 12.7 points over 20 minutes from the No. 2 overall pick. But given her play on Tuesday and an uptick in minutes, her ceiling should be closer to 15.6 points tonight.

Miller’s scoring total for Thursday reflects her limited work in 2023, sitting as low as 11.5 points (Over -135) while other books are up to 12.5 points O/U.

Before coming back Tuesday, the Maryland standout was averaging just over 10 points and attempting eight shots per game in less than 21 minutes of playing time per game. Miller did post efforts of 13 and 14 points in the two games before hurting her ankle, in which she had eight points in 12 minutes before leaving the game.

In her first game back, she showed no rust or conditioning issues. Miller scored from everywhere on the floor and was especially great at pushing the ball in transition and scoring at the basket. She once again faces a Storm defense that allows the most points in the paint in the league and struggles against sizable guards like Miller.

"Being aggressive really (helped)," Minnesota forward Napheesa Collier told the Star Tribune. "I think Diamond really actually came in and set that precedent for us. We're so much harder to guard and to play against when we're aggressively attacking the paint instead of going around the 3-point line."

At 6-foot-3, Miller’s a problem for any WNBA defense, using her length to shoot over smaller defenders while also bullying her way inside with speed and strength. Seattle doesn’t have great matchup options against Miller, as their guards run too small (Jewel Loyd and Ivan Dojkic) or too slow (Kia Nurse).

I expect her to have another stellar showing in Seattle tonight and blow away her scoring total, which isn’t priced properly when you consider her tremendous talent, advantageous matchup, and increased floor time.

My best bet: Diamond Miller Over 11.5 points (-135 at DraftKings)

Lynx vs Storm spread and Over/Under analysis

Minnesota took advantage of one of the WNBA’s worst defenses Tuesday, posting a season-high 104 points on 53% shooting. The Lynx opened with a blistering first quarter, taking a 15-point lead out of the gate, and held on for an 11-point victory that was more than enough to cover the 4-point spread.

This game opened with Seattle as a 1.5-point home favorite on Wednesday afternoon and that line has climbed to -2 as of Thursday morning, with Covers Consensus showing 70% of early picks siding with the Storm.

My WNBA ratings produced a spread closer to pick’em with a slight lean in Minnesota’s direction. However, the Lynx will once again be without starting center Jessica Shepard due to illness.

Minnesota did, however, finally get some good news on the injury front with rookie guard Diamond Miller returning to the lineup for the first time since suffering an ankle injury on May 30. Miller didn’t show any rust, scoring 18 points with five assists and four rebounds in 31 minutes. Not only is she a big boost for the offense but she established herself as one of the Lynx’s top defenders in her short time in the pros.

Miller’s defensive prowess comes in handy against Storm shooting guard Jewell Loyd. While she leads the WNBA in scoring, Loyd had a ho-hum effort in the loss at Minnesota, going 4-for-18 from the field, including 2 for 7 from 3-point range, to finish with only 14 points.

As Loyd goes, so do the Storm. She’s averaging 24.5 points per outing and Seattle is 5-1 ATS when she posts 25 points or more, leaving the team to go 3-5 ATS when she scores below her season rate. Today’s player prop market has Loyd’s scoring projection at 23.5 points.

Today’s total opened at 163.5 points and has ticked up to 164 at some sportsbooks as of Thursday morning.

Tuesday’s matchup in Minnesota saw the Over/Under move from 163.5 to 160.5 before closing and the final score easily eclipsed that number with 197 collective points scored.

The Lynx were very efficient from the floor, doing a lot of their damage inside the paint, while the Storm buried 13 3-pointers after falling behind so quickly in the opening 10 minutes. The pace of Tuesday’s contest ranked out at 97.8, which suits Seattle’s usual tempo.

Minnesota enters Thursday with a 5-9 Over/Under record on the season, going 2-5 O/U as a visitor. Seattle, on the other hand, is 8-6 O/U overall with a 5-4 O/U count inside Climate Pledge Arena.

Lynx vs Storm betting trend to know

The Lynx are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Lynx vs. Aces.

Lynx vs Storm game info

Lynx vs Storm key injuries

Lynx: Tiffany Mitchell G (Out), Jessica Shepard F (Out), Aerial Powers G (Out), Natalie Achonwa F (Out).
Aces: Jordan Horston F (Questionable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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