The Washington Mystics and Los Angeles Sparks will face off tonight at Crypto.com Arena. The Mystics are playing well this year despite some heavy turbulence, and are aiming to start a new winning streak after defeating the powerhouse Connecticut Sun.
The Sparks, meanwhile, are struggling to put any wins together in a season that doesn't look promising. With veteran guard Kristi Toliver making her debut, L.A. is getting a significant injection of veteran presence and stability that hopefully will allow the club to make a real push.
Read our WNBA betting picks and predictions for Mystics vs. Sparks below.
Mystics vs Sparks odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks. Compare WNBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Mystics vs Sparks predictions
Predictions made on 6/21/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Mystics vs Sparks info
• Location: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California
• Date: Tuesday, June 21, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:30 p.m. ET
• TV: SportsNet LA
Mystics vs Sparks betting preview
Key injuries
Mystics: Elena Delle Donne F (Out).
Sparks: Rae Burrell F (Out), Amanda Zahui B C (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 7-1 in the Mystics' last eight road games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mystics vs. Sparks.
Mystics vs Sparks picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Sparks are going through a great deal, and we haven't even hit July yet. After a rough start to the season, Derek Fisher was let go as head coach and replaced by Fred Williams.
The Sparks have only played two games since Williams took over, and they are still looking for a victory. L.A. has been the league's worst in terms of points (77), field goal percentage (38.6%), 3-point percentage (28.6%), assists (17.5), and turnovers (15) during that span. While the sample size is small, the results haven't exactly matched the execution that comes with a new head coach.
Washington has been a bit of a roller coaster this year, with a mix of solid stretches and some let downs. While the Mystics aren't world-beaters, they are a tough team that should be in playoff contention, and are far better than the Sparks.
The Mystics have the third-best record in the WNBA, which has a great deal to do with their assists, turnovers, steals, and plus/minus, which all rank within the Top 5 in the league.
Mystics star Elena Delle Donne will be out of the lineup tonight (rest), but that shouldn't derail anyone's thoughts on how this matchup will play out. While Delle Donne is the best player on the Mystics' roster, Washington has played eight games without her this year and defeated the Chicago Sky recently after Delle Donne left the game early due to injury.
The Mystics are coming off their biggest statement game of the season in a 71-63 victory over the Connecticut Sun. The Sparks, on the other hand, haven't won a game since May and have lost their last three games by a combined 34 points. Lay the points with the Mystics.
Prediction: Mystics -5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
Both the Mystics and Sparks rank amongst the middle of the pack on offense. The Sparks are fifth in offensive efficiency, while the Mystics are seventh. The Mystics (11-7) have fared better than the Sparks (6-8) against the spread.
Defensively, these two teams are opposites, with the Mystics ranking No. 1 in defensive efficiency while the Sparks are last at 106.9. The Mystics will make it difficult for the struggling Sparks to find their rhythm in this game.
While the Sparks have a knack for getting opponents to commit turnovers (8.6 per game), they will have to deal with a Mystics team that only allows 14.4 points off turnovers, the third-best mark in the league. The turnover battle will be fascinating to follow as the Sparks are among the best in scoring off turnovers (22.5).
If we want to see the Over here, someone will have to get hot, and neither team possesses many options to fill the need. In June, the Mystics have been ninth in the league in points per game (77.9) while the Sparks are last (76). Nneka Ogwumike of the Sparks is a name to watch as the 31-year-old vet looks to build on her impressive season, averaging 17.9 points and 7.8 rebounds on 59% shooting.
While Ogwumike is formidable, I'd expect the Mystics to slow her down enough to keep this match low-scoring.
Prediction: Under 168 (-114 at BetRivers)
Best bet
It's clear the Mystics are a far better team than the Sparks, who have shown no sign of improvement as the season has marched on.
As stated earlier, the Mystics and Sparks are similar on the offensive side of the ball in many metrics and don't have many options to completely take over a game. The Mystics don't have a single player who averages 15 points per game, and outside of Ogwumike, the Sparks don't either.
This year, many of the Sparks' wins have come against equally inferior competition, outside of a rare early May victory over the Chicago Sky. I don't see anything like that happening in this matchup. Look for the Mystics to take control early and claim victory easily.
Pick: Mystics moneyline (-215 at DraftKings)
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