The Washington Mystics are the only team yet to win a game in the WNBA this season.
On Saturday, May 25, they’ll be in Seattle to take on the Storm, a team that sits at 2-3 and has a ways to go in turning into the dark horse title favorite many predicted them to be.
The books are leaning heavily on Washington’s misery Saturday, tabbed as 9-point underdogs in the WNBA odds.
Read below for my free Mystics vs Storm prediction, and I’ll tell you why my WNBA picks are targeting Washington and all those points.
Mystics vs Storm predictions
My best bet
Mystics +9 (-112 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Perhaps the most glaring stat that jumps out as you try to see how Washington is 0-5 is the scoring, a W-worst 75.4 points per game.
Even with attempting and hitting at the third-best rate from beyond the arc, the Mystics don’t get to the tin much, averaging 28 paint points per game, the only team in the league going for less than 30 points per contest in that category.
But the Mystics have been in every game, the largest margin of defeat so far this year is nine points — a loss suffered at the hands of the Storm, 84-75 on May 19.
They’ve been able to keep it close by allowing the fourth-fewest points in the league (81.2) and limiting the opposition to just 27% from beyond the arc, second only to Dallas.
Seattle’s 2-3 start to the year is probably a mild surprise, considering the additions of All-Star talent in the form of Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins-Smith in the offseason to pair with 2023 scoring champion Jewell Loyd.
That combination has yet to truly click, as evidenced by their last-place offensive rating, looking up at the 11th-place Mystics. A team with that much talent, the Storm are just ninth in scoring at 79 points per game, and rank last in both field goal shooting (38.8%) and 3-point shooting (24.7%).
In that win over the Mystics, Seattle could only muster a 5-for-20 performance from beyond the arc, and its 20 turnovers were converted to 26 points against. The Storm made up the difference, however, by pounding the glass. The WNBA’s top rebounding team, Seattle was +14 in rebounding, including a 14-6 advantage on the offensive glass.
That turned into six more field goal attempts and coupled with a plus-7 advantage from the stripe, proved to be the difference.
Washington is a surprisingly stout 3-1-1 against the spread this season, its only blemish was failing to cover the 4.5-point spread to the Storm. With the spread doubled this time around, I’d lean on the visitors keeping things close again as the Storm try to work out their early-season issues.
Mystics vs Storm same-game parlay (SGP)
Mystics +9
Jewell Loyd Over 4.5 rebounds
Karlie Samuelson Over 1.5 3-point makes
Not exactly sure why, but the books are badly undervaluing Loyd’s board work, setting her rebounding total at 4.5 rebounds. The star guard has been a rebounding dynamo for the Storm to start the year, averaging eight rebounds per game. She’s coming off a season-best 11 rebound-effort in a win over Indiana.
She’s crossed the total in all but one game this season, when Loyd nabbed just four rebounds against these same Mystics. It’s more than likely her rebounding numbers will regress — she had a career-best 4.7 boards per game last year — but I’ll gladly roll this prop into an SGP during this little early-season run.
Let’s add Karlie Samuelson’s 3-point shooting as the last leg of this parlay. The journeywoman guard, who is playing for her fifth different team in six seasons, is hitting a respectable 35.7% from 3-point range this season.
Samuelson hasn’t lit it up of late, going just 2-for-11 over the last couple of games, but the last time she topped her 1.5 line was against the Storm, going 3-for-6 from beyond the arc.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mystics vs Storm odds
Mystics vs Storm live odds
Get the latest Mystics vs Storm WNBA odds for tonight.
Mystics vs Storm opening odds
- Spread: Washington +85 (-108) | Seattle -8.5 (-106)
- Moneyline: Washington +321 | Seattle -389
- Over/Under: Over 160 (-108) | Under 160 (-108)
Mystics vs Storm spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Mystics are 3-1-1 against the spread this season.
- Seattle has one win in the last four head-to-head matchups.
- The Under has hit in three of the last four games between these teams.
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Mystics vs Storm trend
Washington has gone Under the total in three straight games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mystics vs Storm.
Sun vs Sky game info
| Location: | Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Saturday, May 25, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX 13+, Amazon Prime Video - Seattle, MNMT |
Mystics vs Storm latest injuries
Mystics: Brittney Sykes G (Out), Shakira Austin C (Out).
Storm: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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