The New York Liberty and Breanna Stewart take their talented team on a cross-country homecoming, facing Stewart’s former club — the Seattle Storm — on Tuesday.
New York, which made a huge splash this WNBA offseason by signing Stewart and other big-name players, is a lofty favorite on the road with WNBA odds giving the host Storm more than 15 points. Despite all the superstars the visitors sport, a certain veteran in green may be the path to profitably in this matchup.
I run down the spread and Over/Under total for this coast-to-coast contest and give my best WNBA picks for the Liberty vs. Storm on May 30.
Liberty vs Storm best odds
Liberty vs Storm picks and predictions
One of the moves made this offseason to plug numerous holes on this Seattle Storm roster was adding veteran guard Kia Nurse, who has a reunion of her own Tuesday. Nurse, who missed the 2022 season recovering from a torn ACL, started her WNBA career with three seasons for the Liberty before playing in Phoenix in 2021.
She had a quiet debut for Seattle, playing only 11 minutes and going 0-for-2 from the field to finish with zero points and one rebound in the one-sided loss to the Aces. However, she logged 29 minutes and poured in 20 points on 6-for-13 shooting — all of those makes coming from beyond the arc — in the close loss to Dallas last Friday.
Nurse’s player projections for Tuesday have her once again playing major minutes and her scoring forecast is sitting at more than 15 points against New York. That measures up well with oddsmakers setting Nurse’s scoring total at 10.5 points (Over -115).
Nurse talked about her increased role in the offense after the loss to Dallas, and how she has to be more involved and shoot the ball in order to space the floor and prevent defenses from double teaming Seattle star Jewell Loyd. Nurse did just that with 11 of her 13 shots coming from 3-point range.
“Just putting them up when I’m open and not second guessing it,” Nurse told reporters after her uptick in offensive output. “I don’t need a whole lot of time and space to do it, but I didn’t want to be an offensive liability and that’s something that I felt I struggled with in that first game.”
This young Storm roster needs a veteran like Nurse to set the tone, especially in big-stage televised games like tonight’s run in with the high-powered Liberty. The game script calls for plenty of points from Nurse with this total climbing past 162, and the Storm needing big buckets from deep to keep pace as sizable home pups.
My best bet: Kia Nurse Over 10.5 points (-115 at bet365)
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Liberty vs Storm spread and Over/Under analysis
Oddsmakers opened New York as a 14.5-point road favorite on Monday afternoon and that spread quickly climbed to as high as Liberty -15.5 by Monday evening. Some books are even dealing this line at -16 as of Tuesday morning, with the return of guard Marine Johannes from the French league adding more depth to an already-loaded Liberty roster.
New York has been a tough team to rate properly. It lost a sloppy opening game in Washington with this group playing at full speed for the first time, then rolled over the weak Indiana Fever at home. Saturday’s matchup with Connecticut didn’t help clear things up, with New York trailing by six at half before exploding in the second half and eventually winning 81-65 as 6.5-point home chalk.
The Liberty locked down on defense in the second half of that victory and picked up plenty of points in transition and off turnovers, with stars like Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and Courtney Vandersloot doing damage from beyond the arc.
They’ll face a much softer defense in Seattle tonight. The Storm are expected to have a down year after losing Stewart to New York in free agency and the retirement of veteran guard Sue Bird. Things have somewhat gone according to that plan, with Seattle getting blasted by Las Vegas in the opener and coming up short in a shootout with Dallas on May 26.
For contrast on a spread this big, the Storm closed as 13.5-point home underdogs for that run-in with the Aces — the only team rated higher than the Liberty — and got mopped 105-64. The Liberty faced a 16-point closing line against Indiana on May 21 and just covered the spread with a 90-73 win at home.
My WNBA power ratings are still a work in progress and the most challenging lines to project involve the top two teams and the bottom two. We happen to have both of those variables in the mix tonight. While my line came out shorter than the opener of New York -14.5, take that info with a grain of salt.
The Liberty have a very high ceiling considering the offensive options. If they’re able to pick up where they left off in the final two frames against Connecticut, this could be the best two-way team in the WNBA. As for the Storm, they may not be able to defend but they can put up points, which keeps the backdoor cover a threat.
The Over/Under total opened at 162 points and has bounced between 161.5 and 162.5 since Monday afternoon.
As mentioned, Seattle’s defense (2-0 O/U) has been non-existent through two home games, allowing those foes to fire at a 52.4% clip from the floor and shoot a combined 19-for-40 from beyond the arc. The Storm’s pace rating is tops in the league right now, which is also a reflection of their competition, with Dallas and Las Vegas sitting No. 2 and No. 3 in tempo.
New York (1-2 O/U) is on the exact opposite end of that scale, ranking dead last in pace rating through three games. The Liberty’s offense has run hot and cold, especially from outside. They were just 7-for-31 from distance in their lone road game at Washington, so I’ll be keeping an eye on their shooting splits with the next two contests away from Brooklyn.
Defensively, New York looked solid in the second half against Connecticut and was good against Indiana before taking its foot off the pedal in the fourth quarter. However, against the Mystics, the Liberty allowed the home team to shoot 46% from the floor and translate N.Y. turnovers into easy hoops.
Liberty vs Storm betting trend to know
The Storm have played Over in eight straight home games going back to last season. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Storm.
Liberty vs Storm game info
| Location: | Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Tuesday, May 30, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Liberty vs Storm key injuries
Liberty: No injuries to report.
Storm: No injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
