New York Liberty vs Washington Mystics Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Cloud Keeps Mystics Above Water in Washington

They say revenge is a dish best served cold, but you’ll forgive the New York Liberty if their passions get the best of them as they square off against the Washington Mystics on Friday, July 21.

While this isn’t the first rematch since the Mystics walloped the new-look Liberty on opening day, there’s little doubt that New York is still feeling raw after the Mystics served them a heaping helping of humble pie during the very first game of the season, blowing out the presumptive Eastern Conference champs 80-64. 

Their most recent matchup was an instant classic, with the Liberty ultimately pulling off a dramatic one-point comeback in overtime. Since then, not only have the Liberty found their groove, but the Mystics have also been decimated by injuries.

Our WNBA picks and predictions for Liberty vs. Mystics expect Natasha Cloud will make the most of her offensive opportunities as Washington’s main weapon on Friday.

Liberty vs Mystics best odds

Liberty vs Mystics picks and predictions

The Washington Mystics are the walking wounded right now. After losing Shakira Austin to a hip injury, they’ve subsequently lost Elena Delle Donne, Ariel Atkins, and Kristi Tolliver to a variety of ailments. What’s worse is that none of them seem to be all that close to returning to action. For a team based around defense and continuity, that’s going to make for tough sledding over the next few weeks.

It also makes them an intriguing WNBA player prop target as their remaining players, including lead guard Natasha Cloud, slide into greater offensive roles. All those absences mean that Cloud is going to play close to mid-30s in minutes basically no matter what, because the team can’t afford to have many stretches without her on the court. 

Cloud and Brittney Sykes will be practically the only offensive initiators on the team, meaning that even if she doesn’t have a particularly efficient outing, there’s a good chance this points prop cashes. In her last game, Cloud topped 19 points despite shooting just 7-for-18 from the floor and 2-for-8 from three-point range because even if she’s missing, there’s nobody to really lighten her offensive load.

But there’s also reason to think she might be more effective against the Liberty than she was against the Indiana Fever. Despite not having a credible pull-up 3, Cloud has become a maestro in the pick and roll. Her ability to use screens to generate space, get her defender in jail, and touch the paint consistently is the genesis of everything good this version of the Mystics does.

Cloud’s mastery of screens is crucial to why I like her points prop for Friday’s game. Sabrina Ionescu and Courtney Vandersloot form one of the most dynamic offensive backcourts in the W, but their inability to navigate screens effectively stands out as one of their glaring weaknesses. Even if Cloud isn’t hitting the long ball, her ability to work off screens should get her in position to score against the Liberty backcourt early and often.

Cloud is also much stronger than the Liberty’s guard rotation, and she gets every ounce out of her physical advantages because she marries her strength with a dogged tenacity to get to the rim. 

Cloud got to the line 11 times in the most recent game against the Liberty, hitting 10 of them. While not every game will prove so fruitful for her from the foul line, her expanded role and matchup advantages mean she should have more than enough juice to cash this prop, which opened at 14.5 points and has since fallen to 13.5.

My best bet: Natasha Cloud Over 13.5 points (-104 at FanDuel)

Liberty vs Mystics spread and Over/Under analysis

Friday’s game sees the Liberty come in as -8.5 road favorites, largely due to all of Washington’s injuries. The Mystics are down a lot of bodies, but what they won’t be short on is pride and discipline. 

Atkins is a huge defensive loss, but replacing her by increasing Cloud and Sykes’ minutes ensures that her loss can be mostly minimized on that end. They’ve also been a dominant home team, going 5-1 against the spread over their last six games in D.C.

The more consequential losses are those to their frontcourt players, with Austin and now EDD sidelined likely until August. 

The Liberty have two immensely skilled shooting bigs in Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones, players so unique and talented that few starting units can hang with them, giving little hope to the Mystic’s emergency frontcourt rotation. Still, newcomer Queen Egbo shined in her Mystics debut and Tianna Hawkins is mobile enough. 

They’ll make the Liberty work. But over the course of a 40-minute game, the up-tempo style of the Liberty should win out. Myisha Hines-Allen is the kind of big body that should be able to bang with Jones down low but will suffer when the Liberty stretch the court and go fully five out. 

But the Liberty’s recent track record is not inspiring. They’ve now lost four straight games ATS. That said, they seem to always bounce back strong from a loss like the one they suffered against the Dallas Wings, and they’re 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a straight up loss like that.

Sportsbooks are predicting a low-scoring game on Friday, with the total opening at just 158.5 before quickly rising to as high as 160.5 at some sportsbooks. Don’t be surprised if that number keeps climbing, because these teams have both trended strongly toward the Over in recent weeks. 

The Over is 7-2 in New York’s last nine overall, as well as 5-1 in their last six games on the road. The Over has also cashed in six of the Mystic’s last eight games overall. 

Washington knows where their bread is buttered, so when they lose like they just did to the Fever, they redouble their commitment to the defensive side of the ball. That’s contributed to the Under going 6-2-1 in Washington’s last nine games following an ATS loss.

The Liberty frontcourt advantage is incredibly stark, it’s hard to see how Washington can slow down the likes of Stewart with their available personnel. The question is really whether the Mystics can score enough to somewhat keep pace with New York here. Because I think Cloud is going to be reasonably successful at just that, I’d lean toward the Over even at 160.

Liberty vs Mystics betting trend to know

The Liberty are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Mystics.

Liberty vs Mystics game info

Liberty vs Mystics key injuries

Liberty: Stefanie Dolson C (Out), Han Xu C (Out)
Mystics: Elena Delle Donne F (Out), Shakira Austin C (Out), Ariel Atkins G (Out), Kristi Tolliver G (Out)
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

Pages related to this topic