Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Griner & Co. Can Keep Things Close

It’s the veterans against the young guns tonight, as the Phoenix Mercury try to kickstart their season against the emerging Dallas Wings.

At 1-3, the Mercury are still searching for their best basketball after falling to the Los Angeles Sparks 99-93 in overtime last time out despite 24 points and 11 rebounds from Brittney Griner.

Dallas has slipped back to .500 after consecutive losses, but there are plenty of reasons for optimism in Dallas, with Satou Sabally and Arike Ogunbowale providing a one-two scoring punch. Unfortunately, the team's defense isn't on the same level as its offense.

Let's take a closer look at this June 7 matchup with my free WNBA picks for the Mercury vs Wings.

Mercury vs Wings best odds

Mercury vs Wings picks and predictions

There’s still a long way to go this season, but the Dallas Wings are already no strangers to tight games — with all six of their contests decided by seven points or fewer.

The Dallas offense is humming, averaging 85 points a night (the second-best mark in the league) and Sabally, finally injury-free, has taken a big leap in her fourth season. With that said the Wings have been clipped by a defense that’s giving up 84.5 points a night.

That makes it tough for me to lay the points with the hosts in this spot. I’m expecting a high level of desperation from the Mercury tonight — especially after dropping a winnable game against the Sparks on Friday — and Griner presents a major mismatch for Dallas’ under-sized frontcourt.

Despite an uneven start to 2023, Phoenix boasts the WNBA’s second-best field goal percentage (45.9%) while also tied for the second-best mark from downtown (36.4%). Griner and Taurasi will be able to attack from both the outside and inside against a poor Dallas D.

For a veteran-laden team, the four-day break should help Phoenix here, and the visitors can count on the experience edge over the younger, more athletic Wings. The Mercury have won the last two meetings between these teams, and I’m grabbing the points for what should be another tight battle.

My best bet: Mercury +4.5 (-105 at Pinnacle)

Mercury vs Wings spread and Over/Under analysis

The Mercury’s underwhelming start to the season was at least somewhat predictable with Griner’s lengthy absence and Taurasi now in her 16th year. But there were encouraging signs in the OT loss to L.A. as Phoenix shot 53% from the field, with its star duo combining for 43 points and eight assists.

I’ve already picked a close matchup, continuing the Wings’ trend of serving up nail-biters, and a spread of 4.0 or 4.5 feels a few points too high given that Dallas has routinely been in close fourth-quarter scraps.

The skepticism portrayed in WNBA odds may stem from the Mercury’s struggles away from Footprint Center. Dating back to last season, they’re 1-8 ATS in their last nine away games, but Griner’s ability to dominate the paint gives the visitors a great chance to change that narrative here.

This is the first of two matchups between these teams at College Park Center this week, and Phoenix should have a better shot tonight than in Friday’s quick turnaround rematch.

Scoring shouldn’t be an issue in this showdown. Sabally is coming off a 26-point effort against the Sun while Ogunbowale, despite a rough 3-for-16 shooting night on Sunday, is averaging 21 points and 4.5 assists this season. Dallas ranks second in the league with 8.7 made threes per game, and the offense has been effective even while getting limited production off the bench.

Meanwhile, Griner had 20+ points on Friday for the second time this year and Taurasi’s stroke looked smooth en route to knocking down four triples.

The Over has hit in Phoenix’s last four games against Western Conference opponents and in its last five games overall. It’s been a winning ticket in Dallas’ recent contests too as the Over is 4-1 in the Wings’ last five games after a SU loss.

Mercury vs Wings betting trend to know

The Wings have had trouble putting away struggling teams, going 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team with a losing record. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Wings.

Mercury vs Wings game info

Mercury vs Wings key injuries

Mercury: Skylar Diggins-Smith G (Out), Shey Peddy G (Out).
Wings: Crystal Dangerfield G (Questionable), Lou Lopez Senechal G (Out), Diamond DeShields G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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