We’re rapidly approaching the endgame of the WNBA regular season, which means some teams are going to be desperate for every last win. We have one such mismatch tonight as the suddenly red-hot Los Angeles Sparks host the bottom-feeding Phoenix Mercury.
The Sparks are on a rampage and very much in the playoff hunt, coming off their best win of the season against the Las Vegas Aces. The Mercury, by contrast, have let go of the rope and will be sitting many of their star players. The WNBA odds certainly favor a strong Sparks performance, but a team full of players getting their first shot at real minutes is always dangerous.
Our WNBA picks and predictions for Mercury vs. Sparks are banking on Sophie Cunningham having all she can eat on offense.
Mercury vs Sparks best odds
Mercury vs Sparks picks and predictions
Unlike their city’s namesake, the Phoenix Mercury do not appear ready to rise from the ashes any time soon. At 9-23, they’re only a fraction better than the Indiana Fever, who own the worst record in the WNBA. They fired their coach midseason and may have wasted one of the last productive years of Diana Taurasi’s career.
Taurasi, Brittney Griner, and Shey Peddy are all out for Wednesday’s game due to indeterminable degrees of actual injury or late-season surrender. But that does not mean there’s nothing worth watching or betting on from a Mercury perspective for tonight's tilt against the Los Angeles Sparks.
In the absence of so many of the key cogs that make the Mercury offense run, one player remains who can shoulder the offensive load: Sophie Cunningham.
Cunningham is a bit more than a straight-up shooting specialist, but a bit less than a true No.1 option. Still, in spot minutes, she can soak up a lot of offensive possessions and make good of them. Cunningham can score in a variety of ways and has shown a real knack for getting to the line, but the best value prop available for her on Wednesday speaks to her greatest strength: perimeter shooting.
Cunningham is a career 35.9% shooter, and while she’s a touch lower than that this year at 34.6%, she takes a lot of them and has a fairly diverse jumper. She can take shots off the move as well as coming off screens and is deadly when planted in the corner.
With DT, Griner, and Peddy all out, Cunningham is going to get all she can eat on offense. Over her last 10 games, she’s only taken fewer than five threes once, and is averaging 2.3 makes on 6.3 attempts.
The Sparks allow more 3-point attempts than all but the Minnesota Lynx and given Cunningham's recent volume, it is a steal to get Over 1.5 threes at plus money.
My best bet: Sophie Cunningham Over 1.5 3-pointers made (+112 at FanDuel)
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Mercury vs Sparks spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread for Wednesday’s contest opened at Sparks -7.5, rose as high as -9, and is now available between -7.5 and -8.5 at most sportsbooks. A month ago, a line like that would have seemed ridiculous because these teams were pretty evenly matched, but in the Mercury have fallen completely out of the playoff race the intervening time and the Sparks have undertaken one of the great late-season rallies in recent memory.
The Sparks are not only coming off an impressive road win over the Las Vegas Aces, but they’re a stunning 8-0 against the spread over their last eight games. The Sparks offense has been middle of the road, but they’ve been the second-best defense since the All-Star break with a stingy 97.9 defensive rating.
It should be little surprise then that oddsmakers are predicting a low-scoring contest, with the total coming in at a paltry 157.5. That’s since dropped as many as two points at some books to as low as 155.5. There is clearly little confidence in either the Sparks or the Mercury offense, and that’s an understandable assessment given the missing cast of characters on both sides. The Under has cashed in nine of Phoenix’s last 13 games.
What one has to try to determine is what the losses of Griner and Taurasi (and to a lesser degree Peddy) mean to the scoring balance sheet. Griner is a two-way force, but Taurasi is a defensive liability. Against the Sparks, that means Nneka Ogwumike is going to dominate inside but the L.A. guards won’t have as easy of a time.
A rested team is typically the best version of itself, and that version of the Sparks is a defense-first squad. The Under is 4-0 over the last four games when L.A. has had three or more days of rest as it does ahead of Wednesday’s game. It’s also 7-2 in the Sparks' last nine games overall.
Mercury vs Sparks betting trend to know
The Sparks are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Sparks.
Mercury vs Sparks game info
| Location: | Galen Center, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, August 23, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS Sports |
Mercury vs Sparks key injuries
Mercury: Diana Taurasi G (Out), Brittney Griner C (Out), Shey Peddy G (Out), Skylar Diggins-Smith G (Out).
Sparks: Nia Clouden G (Out), Chiney Ogwumike F (Out), Lexie Brown G (Out), Katie Lou Samuelson F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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