Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Griner Neutralized in Big Apple

Just a few years ago, the Phoenix Mercury were inner-circle contenders and the New York Liberty owned the league’s worst record at just 2-20, but while this matchup is still one between haves and have-nots, the roles have completely flipped in 2023. The Mercury recently let go of head coach Vanessa Nygaard because of their grisly record (now 3-12) and while the Liberty have a long way to go to catch up to the Las Vegas Aces at the head of the pack, they’ve largely dominated the rest of the league.

Our WNBA picks and predictions for Mercury vs. Liberty for Wednesday, July 5 believe the combination of Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones should hold Phoenix star Brittney Griner to a quiet night.

Mercury vs Liberty best odds

Mercury vs Liberty picks and predictions

It’s sad that one of Brittney Griner’s best individual seasons, and her first season since her detainment by Russian authorities, is being wasted on another lost Phoenix Mercury year. Griner is up to 19.8 points per game on a career-best 61.4% effective field goal percentage, and every night has to give a Herculean effort just to keep the Mercury from getting blown out.

Most teams don’t have an answer for Griner in the post. She’s quick, has impeccable timing, and at 6-foot-9 she towers over even most WNBA centers. But the Mercury are going to be in big trouble if they’re relying on Griner to bail them out again on Wednesday because the New York Liberty have not just one answer for Griner, but two.

Breanna Stewart makes headlines for her incredible scoring, but she’s also arguably the best defender in the WNBA. While she moves like a wing on offense, she’s completely at ease playing the role of a small-ball defensive five in spurts. She also knows that Griner is the only five-alarm fire on this depleted Mercury squad, so even on possessions where she’s not the primary matchup, Griner will feel her breathing down her neck when she tries to catch a ball in the paint.

But on top of that, New York is home to possibly the best defensive matchup for Griner in the league in the form of 2021 unanimous MVP Jonquel Jones. Jones has had a slow start to the season as she works her way back from a stress fracture injury that upended most of her offseason, but in recent weeks she’s looking as sharp as ever. Jones is taller and bigger than Stewart, and though at 6-foot-6 she still doesn’t measure up to Griner, her 6-foot-11 wingspan allows her to guard Griner in ways few other W player can.

Griner and Jones have faced off in 13 regular season WNBA games in their careers, so nothing Griner does will come as a surprise to Jones (the two were also teammates in Russia). In the five most recent matchups between the two, Griner is averaging just 12.6 points per game on 44% from the field, eclipsing the 20-point mark just once. 

Given that Griner is the most efficient high-volume player in the WNBA, that’s a remarkable drop-off, and more than worthy of my best for Wednesday’s action.

My best bet: Brittney Griner Under 20.5 points (-136 FanDuel)

Mercury vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis

The Liberty opened as -12.5-point favorites Tuesday night and that line has quickly climbed to -14.5. Given the disparity in quality between these teams, I would not be surprised to see enough money coming in on the favorites to push this as high as -15.5 before tip.

Not only are the Mercury 2-8 in their last 10 games straight up, but they’re also 2-8 against the spread despite rock-bottom expectations. That includes going 0-6 ATS against teams with a winning record. Their only two wins in that span both came against the Indiana Fever, a team that wants Aliyah Boston to bang in the post against Brittney Griner. Most other teams don’t need to force things against Griner and instead can exploit the Mercury’s weaker guard rotation on defense. 

The Liberty will do that with Sabrina Ionescu and Courtney Vandersloot, and they can also stretch Griner out of the paint entirely because Stewie and Jones are both outstanding 3-point shooters. Unlike some other talented teams, the Liberty have made a habit of putting away inferior opponents early. They’re 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a losing record.

Wednesday’s total has seen significant shifts too, with a jump from 162.5 at opening to as high as 165.5 at some sportsbooks. That movement is all about blowout potential on the Liberty side of things, but it takes two to tango. Yes, Overs are 5-2 in the Mercury’s last seven games against teams with a winning record, but that’s not because Phoenix has found some winning offensive formula against quality teams. I believe Griner is going to have her hands full against Stewart and Jones, so I’m inclined to pick the Under particularly because you’re getting up to three free points off the opening price.

Mercury vs Liberty betting trend to know

The Mercury are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Liberty.

Mercury vs Liberty game info

Mercury vs Liberty key injuries

Mercury: Shey Peddy G (Questionable), Sophie Cunningham G (Questionable), Skylar Diggins-Smith G (Out).
Liberty: Han Xu C (Out), Stefanie Dolson C (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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