Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Stewie Heats Up Again

The New York Liberty will try to bounce back from a mid-week loss to the Atlanta Dream when they host the banged-up Phoenix Mercury on Sunday afternoon.

New York is in third place in the WNBA standings with a 6-3 record, but struggled against Atlanta in its last outing when superstar Breanna Stewart shot 1-of-14 from the field. Phoenix (2-7) could be without its two biggest stars on Sunday, as both Brittney Griner and Diana Taurasi are questionable heading into the game.

The Mercury were blown out on the road on Friday when they played shorthanded, and face a similarly daunting task today. We’ll break down what to expect in our free WNBA picks and predictions for Mercury vs. Liberty on June 18.

Mercury vs Liberty best odds

Mercury vs Liberty picks and predictions

On Friday, Phoenix traveled to face the Washington Mystics without Griner in the lineup. That left the Mercury with a shorthanded and undersized lineup against a team that had a superstar post player in Elena Delle Donne. 

That led to predictable results. Delle Donne scored 17 points to lead the Mystics to an easy 88-69 victory. Washington was able to shoot 50% from the field against a weakened Mercury defense, while Phoenix shot just 39% with Griner out of the lineup.

That’s not the only injury Phoenix has been dealing with, either. Taurasi hurt her hamstring prior to the game against Washington, and didn’t play on Friday. While Taurasi is now 40 years old, she remains a key player for the Mercury, scoring 15.3 points per game and leading the WNBA with an average of 6.0 assists.

Griner is still dealing with her hip injury, and Taurasi remains on the injury list as well. Both players come into Friday’s game listed as questionable, and it’s unclear if one or both might play. Even if they do, we can’t expect either to be at 100% for this matchup.

That’s a problem when they’re playing one of the top teams in the league. The Liberty came into this season with the reputation of being one of the WNBA’s two superteams, alongside the Las Vegas Aces. It’s unclear how well that prediction will pan out, but even if New York hasn’t quite lived up to expectations, it is still a 6-3 team with loads of talent.

Stewart may have had one of the worst games of her career on Tuesday, but she’s still one of the most unstoppable players in the league. The 6-foot-4 forward is averaging 23.4 points and 10.4 rebounds per game, both of which rank third in the WNBA. She’s the kind of interior presence that has gone toe-to-toe with Griner throughout her career, and even when the two superstars match up, Stewart still gets her share of points.

With Griner questionable for today’s game, we run into the same problem we had in Phoenix’s last outing. The Mercury are facing one of the WNBA’s best post players, but are lacking their premier interior defender. That adds up to a recipe for Stewart to dominate almost uncontested this afternoon.

The situation could be even worse if guard Sabrina Ionescu comes back for the Liberty. Ionescu is averaging 16.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game, but sat out the loss against the Dream with hamstring tightness.

I like the Liberty here, whether or not Ionescu plays, but it seems likely that she will, which makes this an even easier pick. New York is giving a lot of points, but just like we saw earlier in the week for the Mercury, I don’t think Phoenix can keep up with this team in their current state. 

My best bet: Liberty -12.5 (-110)

Mercury vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis

The Liberty opened today’s game as a 12.5-point favorite. Some books have held at that number, while others have pushed New York to -13 or even -13.5. You can get the Mercury at +13.5 for -114 odds if you’re inclined to bet on the underdog.

Neither team has been particularly strong against the spread this year. The Mercury are just 3-6 ATS, and while New York has played well overall, they’re still coming up short of expectations, posting a 4-5 ATS mark on the year. 

As I noted above, this is a pick based largely on the health issues for the Mercury. The Liberty would be a solid favorite at home against Phoenix even if both teams were playing with all their weapons in a completely healthy state. At best, however, the Mercury will have limited availability for both Griner and Taurasi against a loaded Liberty squad. This game has blowout written all over it, so I’m happy to lay the points with New York.

The total for today’s game opened at 161.5. Most books have since moved the Over/Under up a bit, with the consensus number falling somewhere around a flat 163. However, some books have stuck with 162.5, giving you the option of getting an extra half-point if you want the Over.

Neither team has any discernible trends towards the total so far this year. The Over is a dead even 4-4-1 in Mercury games, while it has gone 5-4 when the Liberty play this season.

At first glance, this total is low given what we’ve seen from these teams in 2023. The Liberty are playing to an average of 165.2 points per game, while Phoenix has an average total of 164.2. While these aren’t exactly run-and-gun teams, both play at reasonable paces that often see one or both teams hitting 80+ points. In fact, the Liberty have played to totals of 189 and 195 in two of their last three games.

Still, I’m not playing this market at all. The number of injuries here makes it hard to predict what kind of offensive performance we’ll see on the court today. My lean would be towards the Over, as I expect the Liberty to dominate, and they have an offense that’s capable of scoring 100+ points against weaker opponents. However, if Phoenix is hampered by injuries, they may not contribute much to the total, and they might slow the game down if they are relatively shorthanded. My advice is to stay away from the total.

Mercury vs Liberty betting trend to know

The Mercury are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams with winning straight-up records. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Liberty.

Mercury vs Liberty game info

Mercury vs Liberty key injuries

Mercury: Brittney Griner C (Questionable), Diana Taurasi G (Questionable), Skylar Diggins-Smith G (Out).
Liberty: Jonquel Jones F (Questionable), Sabrina Ionescu G (Questionable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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