Phoenix Mercury vs Seattle Storm Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Loyd Takes Passive Approach

It was just in 2021 that the Phoenix Mercury and the Seattle Storm were locked in battle in the second round of the WNBA playoffs. Now, they find themselves sharing the two worst records in the league, with depleted rosters and staring at a long road back to relevance. 

This version of Mercury vs. Storm might not have the same cachet as the old Sue Bird and Diana Taurasi battles of old, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t solid betting angles to take hold of for the creative bettor.

In my WNBA picks and predictions for the Mercury vs. Storm, I'll be fading Jewell Loyd — but not for the reason you might think.

Mercury vs Storm best odds

Mercury vs Storm picks and predictions

Regular readers will know, I’ve been a big Jewell Loyd supporter since her breakout game near the beginning of the season and have advocated multiple times in favor of taking the Over on her increasingly inflated points prop. Today, however, I’m arguing for the Under because she’s going up against the worst defense in the WNBA in the Phoenix Mercury.

No, you didn’t read that wrong. It’s precisely because the Mercury have struggled so much on defense that it makes sense to bet against Loyd, as I’ll now walk you through. The Seattle Storm have the worst offense in the WNBA for one simple reason, they struggle to consistently create good shots. As a result, they end up giving the ball to Jewell and hoping she makes something out of nothing on a ton of empty possessions.

But against the Mercury, they’ve proven they can create a good shot on almost every possession. These two teams played each other 11 days ago in Phoenix on June 13, and Loyd scored just 17 points on an efficient (and by her standards) low volume, going 6-for-11 from the field.

What was notable was that everyone in the starting lineup for the Storm took between nine and 11 shots. That’s not typical of the Seattle offense, and it’s only possible because of how poorly Phoenix defends.

Seattle either had a straight drive to the hoop or would swing the ball twice, leading two an an open three. The Mercury were sloppy and so disorganized in transition that a different Seattle player would parade to the basket undeterred on almost every possession. 

Even before Griner was forced to leave the game, it didn’t matter, because Phoenix was hardly ever able to set its halfcourt defense. Diana Taurasi cannot navigate screens properly, which allowed Kia Nurse to get open shot after open shot against her throughout the course of the game. This is not an anomaly either — the Mercury have played to this standard regardless of who has been in the lineup this season.

So the irony of this Phoenix D is that because it has so many fragile points, it invites a team-oriented attack, which is not how the Storm typically play. Jewell is ball dominant, but she is not a selfish player, and there is a meaningful difference. When an open shot or a layup is one or two simple passes away, she’ll make those plays without hesitation. 

I’m fading the “Gold Mamba” today because frankly, they won’t need her as much as they usually do.

My best bet: Jewell Lloyd Under 24.5 points (-110 at bet365)

Mercury vs Storm spread and Over/Under analysis

As mentioned above, the Mercury and the Storm played in a Commissioners Cup game on June 13 in Phoenix, with the Storm blowing the doors off Phoenix 83-69. Griner left the game after just nine minutes with a hip injury that has kept her off the court since.

In the three games following the last meeting (admittedly against tough competition) Phoenix has had an average losing margin of 19 points. As one might expect, it's 0-4 against the spread over its last four games, making it odd the Storm have been set at only between 2.0 and 2.5 point home favorites for Saturday’s game.

The Mercury were a complete mess, and then their best players all got hurt. Now they’re a mess in a totally new kind of way. Griner and Taurasi are both listed as probable for Saturday’s game, but they gain nothing in continuity from their return as they had not figured out a winning style of play when they were available. Seattle by contrast is also losing a lot of games, but it's been competitive, with a 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11.

While the Storm have struggled with quick turnarounds like this one (they’re just 2-5 in their last seven games played on a single day of rest) the primary reason for that is that they rely on Loyd so much to generate offense. But as we’ve seen, that isn’t likely to be the case against the Mercury.

The total opened at 157.5 and has risen as high as 159.5 at some sportsbooks. PHX's 108.4 defensive rating is 4.4 points worse than the next-worst team, a gap as big as the second-worst team and the top half of the league. Its main issues are an inability to deny dribble penetration, lackluster transition defense, and its ungodly turnover rate. A young team like Seattle should be able to take advantage of that and put a lot of points on the board.

The new take-foul rule is frankly disastrous for a team that was already so poor in transition defense like the Mercury, as it takes their Get Out of Jail Free card off the board when they get egregiously caught out of position. If Griner is out, the Storm will parade to the rim. If not, Loyd will still put whichever poor guard Phoenix has defending her in the mix on every other possession.

Still, it would be easy to overcorrect. The Seattle offense is still the league’s worst, and the pace of the Mercury is glacial.

Mercury vs Storm betting trend to know

The Mercury are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Storm.

Mercury vs Storm game info

Mercury vs Storm key injuries

Mercury: Diana Taurasi G (Probable), Brittney Griner C (Probable), Shey Peddy G (Out).
Storm: Arella Guirantes G (Probable), Jordan Horston F (Questionable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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