The Las Vegas Aces’ three-peat dream is hanging by a thread, and all eyes will be on Michelob Ultra Arena tonight as they try to climb back into their series against the locked-in New York Liberty.
The earlier tip has plenty of intrigue too, with the Connecticut Sun and Minnesota Lynx dueling in a feisty, old-school matchup where every bucket comes at a premium.
After scouring this Friday's player prop markets, my top WNBA picks predict contrasting nights for two interior scorers and more fireworks from the Sun’s premier shooter on October 4.
WNBA player prop bets for October 4
- Marina Mabrey Over 3.5 threes (+178 at FanDuel)
- Jonquel Jones Under 14.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)
- A’ja Wilson Over 24.5 points (+106 at FanDuel)
Today's best WNBA player props bets
Prop bet #1: Marina Mabrey Over 3.5 threes
When the Sun traded for Marina Mabrey, the intent was clear: Connecticut needed to give its offense a jolt. It’s taken some time, but Mabrey has definitely got the memo in this semifinal series.
Put simply, she’s been letting it fly — and in a low-scoring series, those contributions have been huge. Mabrey led all scorers with 20 points in Game 1, making six of her 11 3-pointers, and she’s 16-for-41 from downtown in the 2024 playoffs.
Most importantly, the volume is off the charts. She’s attempted double-digit 3-pointers in three of her past four outings, and I expect more of the same here.
Other trends are promising too. Mabrey has knocked down at least three triples in four of her last six contests, and she’s had four or more twice in that span.
With Alyssa Thomas pulling the strings and an electric atmosphere at Mohegan Sun Arena, Mabrey is a good bet to cash in her 3-point looks tonight. She’s shooting 42% from downtown since joining Connecticut and stands out as the X-factor in Game 3.
Prop bet #2: Jonquel Jones Under 14.5 points
It’s been the Sabrina Ionescu and Breanna Stewart show so far in this Liberty-Aces series. So, while Jonquel Jones continues to make key plays, New York just doesn’t need them as often with its two best scorers on a roll.
A lighter offensive load is nothing new for Jones. She’s finished with 14 points or fewer in seven of her past eight games, and I envision a supporting role again in Game 3.
Job No.1 for Jones is to make life as difficult as possible for A’ja Wilson in the paint, and the emphasis on that end of the floor makes the Under on the Jones points prop worth a long look.
She’s not going to force the issue. Jones only took eight shots in Game 2 and has attempted fewer than 10 field goals in nine of her last 12 games. She may still find her way to a double-double, as she so often does, but I’m skeptical about a scoring outburst.
Jones could also be a candidate for foul trouble if the Aces get more of the 50/50 calls on their home floor.
Prop bet #3: A’ja Wilson Over 24.5 points
The Aces are on the ropes, but I don’t expect the defending champs to go quietly in Game 3 — in part because A’ja Wilson hasn’t had a marquee performance yet in these playoffs.
From a Las Vegas viewpoint, if ever there was a moment for the MVP to deliver a scorched-earth takeover, it’s tonight.
She’s made the right plays, taking what the defense gives her and shooting 20-for-34 from the field through two games. But that wasn’t enough for the Aces to land a victory in New York.
Now, the circumstances dictate that Wilson needs to be aggressive early to get her team going. She’s routinely gone past the 20-point mark, but it’s probably going to take more than that to outlast the Liberty.
With the series on the line, it’s no exaggeration to say that Game 3 calls for at least 25 shots from Wilson, and I love the Over on her points prop, especially with a friendlier whistle at home leading to easy buckets at the free-throw line.
It would be no surprise to see Wilson go supernova tonight, and I see the Las Vegas superstar taking out her frustrations with a monster stat line.
Today’s WNBA games
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
