Best WNBA Player Props Today: Young Prioritizes Passing for Las Vegas

Prop bet #1: Jones-ing for more

I bet Brionna Jones to go Over her points prop of 11.5 on Wednesday and the Connecticut Sun’s standout forward posted 16 points in only 18 minutes of action, getting a break in the second half due to a blowout win over the Phoenix Mercury.

Jones and the Sun are back on the floor tonight, hosting the Dallas Wings and their depleted frontcourt. Not only have the Wings been playing without All-Star forward Satou Sabally all season, but they are also down veteran big Natasha Howard and reserve forward Jaelyn Brown. 

That lack of depth up front has hurt Dallas, especially keeping foes off the offensive glass. The Wings are giving up a league-worst 13.2 offensive rebounds per game, leading to an average of 16 second-chance points to start the year.

Jones is very active on the offensive glass for Connecticut, pulling down 2.2 offensive rebounds a night. Now that she’s back to playing more minutes following a soft start to the season (coming off an Achilles tear), she’s averaging four second-chance points in that span.

Her scoring total is again parked at 11.5 points, but player projections call for between 11.7 and 13.3 points over 24 minutes of floor time. Given she’s fresh and getting an advantageous matchup, I’m back on Brionna tonight.

Brionna Jones prop: Over 11.5 points (+100 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Side with McBride

The Minnesota Lynx aim for a bounce back after a reality check game against Las Vegas on Wednesday, hosting the road-weary Phoenix Mercury on Friday night. 

Phoenix is playing its third road game in four days and has been battling a bug that’s been going around the locker room, with stars like Kahleah Copper under the weather. That doesn’t leave much left in the tank tonight, especially considering Phoenix left it all on the floor in a near-comeback in New York on Wednesday.

The Lynx are lofty chalk at home, laying -7 after a strong 4-2 start to the year. Veteran guard Kayla McBride is a big part of that early surge, averaging over 16 points and doing serious damage from distance.

Even when rested and healthy, the Mercury are a mess on defense and do a bad job protecting the perimeter. Phoenix has allowed foes to knock down more than nine triples on 33% shooting per contest.

McBride’s 3-point prop for tonight is sitting at 3.5 O/U but I’m opting for her scoring total of 14.5 points. Player projections for Minnesota call for a ceiling of 23 points over 35 minutes from McBride, but given the possibility of a blowout, I’m far less bullish. 

My number still comes out to 16.5 points from the veteran guard, which should have Over 14.5 points tagged with a juice around -147. However, you can get EVEN money on McBride to score 15+ as of this morning.

Kayla McBride prop: Over 14.5 points (+100 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Point (Guard) Break

Jackie Young has been vital to the Las Vegas Aces in the opening month of the schedule, sharing point guard duties while Chelsea Gray is sidelined.

Young is averaging almost 22 points and 8.2 assists per game for the Aces, who will be playing their second road game in three days after blasting Minnesota on Wednesday. 

Young finished with 19 points in 37 minutes, attempting only 13 shots, while playing the role of distributor with 10 assists in the win. According to head coach Becky Hammon, the team is happy with Young pulling PG duties and isn’t rushing to find a replacement.

“I didn’t know I was going to have the ball in my hands this much going into the season, and so that’s been a bit of an adjustment,” Young told the media this week.

With Young looking to pass more, I’m fading her scoring prop, which has already dropped for tonight’s game against the Atlanta Dream. This market opened as high as 21.5 but is now down to 20.5, with the Under priced as high as -118. However, there is still a 21.5 O/U on the board with an extra ask of -140 on the Under.

Player projections versus the Dream have Young pegged for a basement of 17.4 points over 37 minutes — floor time that might be slimmed given the compressed schedule and growing spread. The game script says Vegas will pull away and Hammon will be quick to protect her thin backcourt as much as possible, pulling Young when she can.

Jackie Young prop: Under 21.5 points (-140 at DraftKings)