Best WNBA Player Props Today: Griner in Peak Form for Mercury

Prop bet #1: Kayla McBride Over 3.5 threes

While Kayla McBride has been a great shooter for a long time (though she hasn’t been an All-Star since 2019) the season she’s putting together for the Minnesota Lynx may be the best basketball she’s ever played.

McBride leads the league in made threes at 51, but her efficiency is on another planet compared to the other high-volume shooters. No other player that has even made 35 threes is shooting better than 38%, while McBride is at 48.6% from downtown on seven attempts per game.

If she gets chances, she’s going to pull the trigger and make them at a high rate. And against the Phoenix Mercury, all evidence suggests she is going to be gifted quality looks.

The Mercury are clearly making a strategic choice under first-year head coach Nate Tibbetts. They are okay with teams taking a high volume of threes against them if it means they can shut down the paint. They’ll do everything they can to keep Brittney Griner close to the basket, and they can live with the consequences from behind the arc.

Mercury opponents average 28.7 (!) attempts from downtown per game. That’s over four more than the second-highest team.

To that point, McBride went a stunning 8-13 from downtown in her last outgoing against Phoenix on June 7, but the Mercury still won the game. This line may seem high, but given the defensive matchup, there’s value here.

Kayla McBride prop: Over 3.5 threes (+140 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Teaira McCowan Over 7.5 rebounds

The Dallas Wings are stumbling through the first half of the season in the absence of Satou Sabally, but Teaira McCowan is still reliably producing as their starting center.

McCowan is at 8.4 rebounds per game, right around her career averages, but a few down outings against top competition have seen these odds dip to just 7.5. Getting trounced on the glass by the likes of Angel Reese doesn’t mean that McCowan isn’t still elite at her job. 

It just means that she’s matchup-dependent, and her matchup advantage against the Washington Mystics is strong. In large part, that’s because the Mystics remain utterly decimated by injury.

Shakira Austin remains out with her nagging hip injury. Brittney Sykes was out, briefly back, and is now out again due to a foot sprain. Aaliyah Edwards is both a rookie still learning the ropes, and questionable with her own back ailment.

McCowan’s matchup, Stefanie Dolson, likes to float around on the perimeter and isn’t a strong rebounder for her size. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Mystics 47.6% rebounding percentage is tied for dead last in the W.

Neither team is overly efficient in terms of first-shot offense, so there will be an excess number of rebounds available to nab.

While McCowan can struggle against the most physical teams, against a depleted team like the Mystics, she’ll use her superior height to dominate the glass.

Teaira McCowan prop: Over 7.5 rebounds (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Brittney Griner Over 19.5 points

Brittney Griner’s season is just getting started, but she’s quickly reasserted herself as one of the most unsolvable problems in the W. Griner has played just five games now after dealing with a broken toe, and she’s still learning to play with new teammates, including stars Natasha Cloud and Kahleah Copper.

After what amounted to a warm-up performance against the Lynx in her return game, where she played just 21 minutes, she’s logged 30 minutes or more in four straight.

Since that first outing, she’s scoring 24 points per game and doing it on an outrageous 63.9% from the field. Griner has been an otherworldly talent since she entered the league, but there have been a few lean years for herm, with the Phoenix Mercury struggling to put complementary pieces around her as Diana Taurasi pushes into her post-prime career.

Now with shooters to spread the floor around Griner all 40 minutes, a dynamic pick-and-roll partner in Cloud, and an explosive wing creator in Copper, she suddenly has a ton of room to operate. Teams can no longer double-team her with impunity because there are too many other threats. 

The Lynx are a nasty defensive team, but they get it done mostly on the perimeter. They allow few opponent threes and play on a string to cut off drives.

They’re only middling when it comes to denying points in the paint. They don’t do a great job defending the rim and they don’t have any player with size that rates next to Griner’s 6-foot-9 frame. 

This line won’t remain below 20 points per game for long, so I’m going to play them nearly every chance I have left.

Brittney Griner prop: Over 19.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)