Best WNBA Player Props Today: Arike Plays Me-First Aaginst Storm

Prop bet #1: Jackie Young Under 18.5 points

The Washington Mystics and the Las Vegas Aces are old foes. When the Mystics had the trio of Natasha Cloud, Brittney Sykes, and Ariel Atkins, they were the only team in the WNBA that could cause trouble for all three of the Aces’ perimeter stars. 

Obviously, the Mystics this season are another matter entirely. Cloud moved on to Phoenix and Elena Delle Donne is taking a year away from the league. Sykes has also been out of the lineup for almost the entire season.

So, it’s advantage Aces on the perimeter, but not equally so for everyone. In previous matchups, Atkins has drawn the assignment on Jackie Young, who has a strong argument as the deadliest wing scorer on Las Vegas. But Atkins is a five-time All-Defense team member and she’s given Young major problems in the past.

With Atkins as the primary defender, Young went just 10-32 across three games for an average of 11.3 points per game last season. Her job is obviously easier with the lesser defenders that the Mystics are playing without Cloud and Sykes, but the path of least resistance for the Aces will never be to feed Young against Atkins.

Young is a fundamentally unselfish player. She’s going to make the right play, which will typically mean pushing the ball to Kelsey Plum or A’ja Wilson with a bent defense. Because she’s likely to face the most difficult one-on-one matchup on Saturday, I like shorting these Jackie Young odds.

Jackie Young prop: Under 18.5 points (-104 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Arike Ogunbowale Under 5.5 assists

Arike Ogunbowale is the definition of a score-first player. But as Satou Sabally is likely going to remain out of the lineup until after the Olympics, Arike has also become the Dallas Wings’ primary playmaker. 

But while she’s averaging a career-best 5.1 assists, this isn’t the result of her reimaging her game. She’s also taking the most shots of her career; she’s simply being asked to do more of everything.

Arike’s efficiency has also majorly dropped off this season, perhaps the result of the fatigue that naturally follows such a jump in on-ball responsibility. She’s also had some of the worst games of her career, low-volume, low-impact nights where it appears the long season has worn her down.

Jewell Loyd and Ogunbowale know each other well, and they’ve had some outrageous scoring duels in recent years. When a player is tired, they’re more likely to fall into their usual habits, for good and ill. I think Arike will attempt to be a scorer primarily on Saturday, and while I don’t feel confident predicting her success against the Seattle Storm, I do think it likely to come at the expense of her assist total.

Seattle has the personnel capable of hanging with Arike one-on-one without sending help. They also have Ezi Magbegor on the backline. 

Ezi is a leading candidate for Defensive Player of the Year, in no small part because of what she provides as a big who can both switch and protect the rim. That kind of mobility should shut down some of the easier actions where Arike might otherwise generate assists against worse, less-mobile defenders.

These Arike Ogunbowale odds are being offered as low as 4.5, and Ogunbowale has only had more than five assists once in her last six games. That makes this an appealing value play.

Arike Ogunbowale prop: Under 5.5 assists (-150 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Stefanie Dolson Over 2.5 threes

Stefanie Dolson is an elite stretch five. Her value has been proven to every team she’s been a part of, most notably when she helped the Chicago Sky win their first championship in 2021.

She’s a career 40% 3-point shooter; one of the best shooters in W history, full-stop. This season, she’s outdoing even her previous best, up north of 47% from downtown and her shot volume has been steadily rising.

Her shooting is now critical to the Washington Mystics, missing EDD. Her offensive role wasn’t expected to be this big coming into the season, but it has just kept climbing as Eric Thibault’s team keeps taking on injuries to core rotation players.

The Aces make a point of defending the paint at all costs, even if it means conceding some above-the-break triples from their opponents. When that shooter is a center, it opens the entire floor for drivers and cutters, and Dolson is a passing threat as well. The Mystics offense rarely looks fluid, but when it does, it’s usually because Dolson has or is about to receive the ball.

Dolson has made four threes in four of her last eight games. While bet365 is offering Over 1.5 threes at -195, I much prefer the significant plus money return on these Stefanie Dolson odds.

Stefanie Dolson prop: Over 2.5 threes (+182 at FanDuel)