Best WNBA Player Props Today: Stewart Heats Up vs Fever

Prop bet #1: Dashed Dreams

Rhyne Howard began the season on an otherworldly heater for the Atlanta Dream. Already one of the W’s best shooters, her first few games outdid even her lofty standard.

But as has often been the case in Howard's career thus far, a startling shooting slump has immediately followed. Howard is now 0 for her last 10 and has hit just 4 of her last 25 from three.

These Rhyne Howard odds are expecting a bounce back, but I don’t think it will come against the Connecticut Sun. The Sun are an elite defensive team inside and out.

They limit opponent 3-point attempts better than almost anyone, which is more predictive game to game than how well an opponent makes their 3-pointers.

That said, Sun opponents are the only ones to shoot below 30% on threes this season. Whether it’s randomness or elite closeout defense is up for debate, but Sun opponents have struggled mightily from deep as they’ve notched their perfect 7-0 start.

Connecticut has players on the wing like DeWanna Bonner who can move their feet and use length bother Howard behind the arc. The Sun also do an excellent job of limiting easy opportunities for quality shots.

The most dangerous 3-point shot is the one that comes directly off an offensive rebound because the paint is packed and the shot is often wide open. The Sun don’t allow many of those. Nor do they allow easy looks in transition.

Howard will snap out of this slump at some point like she always does, but I am highly skeptical it happens on Sunday.

Rhyne Howard prop: Under 2.5 threes (-135 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Strictly ball

Much of the WNBA discourse the past couple of weeks has centered on Caitlin Clark and the physicality that she’s faced during the start of her rookie season. Being put through the paces by your peers is nothing new in pro basketball, particularly not for a player with Clark’s level of hype.

The first player to “welcome” Clark to the W was none other than Breanna Stewart, one of the most decorated women’s basketball players of all time. She set a bone-crushing (and completely legal) screen on Clark when the New York Liberty played the Indiana Fever earlier this season. Stewart also had her two highest-scoring games of the year so far against the Fever.

Whether her physical play against Clark had anything more behind it is impossible to say, but Stewart has dominated this matchup against the Fever twice already.

There are plenty of strictly hoops reasons to believe Stewie will be successful against Indiana. Their interior defense is woeful, as is their connectivity. A simple give-and-go between Stewart and Courtney Vandersloot often led to her getting right to the rim or open at the free-throw line. 

Stewie is among the most skilled players ever and the Fever have nobody remotely her size capable of matching up with her. I think these Breanna Stewart odds are underestimating the damage she’ll do against the Fever’s porous interior defense.

Breanna Stewart prop: Over 20.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: To the Brink

While I narrowly missed on a similar play on a different set of Cameron Brink odds earlier this week, I think there is great value to be had backing the Los Angeles Sparks rookie on the glass Sunday.

The Phoenix Mercury is an incomplete team right now. They are badly missing Brittney Griner’s presence in the post, and even the combined toughness of Natasha Cloud and Kahleah Copper isn’t enough to make up for it by committee.

As such, The Mercury allow more opponent rebounds than any other team in the W. They have the third-worst rebounding percentage overall, but they also play at one of the highest paces in the WNBA. That combination of added possessions but desultory work on the glass makes the plus-money value of this play worthwhile.

Brink finished the first half of the last game against the Chicago Sky with five rebounds. Had she played a normal rotation, she’d have easily cleared seven.

It seems she’s yet to earn the full trust of Curt Miller, but her on/off stats prove that the team is better when she’s in the action. Miller is one of the W’s best and most analytically-minded coaches, so it’s only a matter of time until Brink is playing a lot more.

And at 6-foot-4 she dwarfs what remains of the Mercury frontline. I expect the Sparks to win the battle on the boards against the Mercury with Brink playing a prominent role.

Cameron Brink prop: Over 6.5 rebounds (+105 at DraftKings)