Best WNBA Player Props Today: Lynx Come up Short vs Cardoso

Prop bet #1: Mabrey misses the mark

The Chicago Sky made a big all-in play to add Marina Mabrey last season. While she’s not responsible for the steep price the franchise paid to acquire her, it’s still difficult not to be somewhat disappointed by her production as a member of the Sky.

While she made notable strides over her first three seasons in Dallas, she’s stagnated in Chicago and is averaging fewer points than last season while flirting with the worst shooting splits since her rookie year. 

Mabrey is an incredibly talented scorer, but she’s also a textbook streaky shooter capable of getting red-hot or freezing-cold runs. Her entire game is often determined by how comfortable she gets on her first few shot attempts.

The Minnesota Lynx are a brutal team to play for a player like that. They are so disruptive with their ball pressure and hedging, even the WNBA’s best players often struggle to establish any kind of rhythm against them.

There’s also the matter of shifting team dynamics. While Mabrey entered the season as the Sky’s unquestioned top dog, the rise of both Chennedy Carter and Angel Reese means she’s not getting to dominate the ball quite like she did last season.

Mabrey runs hot or cold in the best of contexts, and the Lynx are tailor-made to make her life difficult. That’s why I like the Under on these Marina Mabrey odds.

Marina Mabrey prop: Under 15.5 points (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Cardoso dominates down low

The Lynx didn’t come into this year projected to be a juggernaut. They’re a team that is clearly more than the sum of its parts. They play with a focus and intensity that few W teams consistently muster during the regular season. But that alchemy doesn’t apply on the glass. 

There, the Lynx are exactly the sum of their (rather small) parts. Minnesota’s 48% rebounding percentage ranks dead-last in the league, and they’re nearly equally as poor on offense as they are on defense. 

Because Kamilla Cardoso was injured to start the year and because of Reese’s immense popularity, Cardoso slid into the background a bit. But it would be foolish to underrate her as a prospect. She’s showing flashes of being one of the most impactful bigs in the game, and at 6-foot-7 she has fluidity and feel that many guards would be envious of.

Size is not enough to beat this Lynx team. Cardoso is big, but she’s not reliant on size. She works as hard to leverage her advantages as anyone, and they will be significant against a Minnesota team that doesn’t start anyone over 6-foot-5.

Cardoso has averaged 9.8 rebounds over her last four outings, and getting plus-money value on these Kamilla Cardoso odds makes this easily one of my favorite picks on Sunday.

Kamilla Cardoso prop: Over 8.5 rebounds (+110 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Jones fires fresh

After finding success with a play on a stretch five on Saturday with Stefanie Dolson, I’m going with a similar line of thinking as I make a play on Jonquel Jones shooting prop. This pick is all about matchups and timing. 

Tina Charles is still a really good player. There’s an argument that she’s been the best player on the entire Atlanta Dream squad. But she’s also a traditional post player and not the most mobile at this stage of her career. Jones' shooting should prove to be a big problem for Charles, and if she is forced to aggressively close out that will mean Jones has opportunities to catch and attack off the dribble.

Jonquel is just 30 but she has a lot of basketball miles on the odometer in the WNBA and accounting for her career outside North America. She also has something of an injury history, so it’s unsurprising that she plays better when there are notable breaks in the New York Liberty’s season.

Her best scoring game of the season came on June 15, when she had 34 points on 12-for-16 from the floor. That came after a full five-day break between games. Her second-longest break prior to today’s game was three full days off when she dropped an efficient 20 on the Phoenix Mercury.

The Liberty have been off since the Commissioners Cup on June 25, meaning JJ has had another three full days off to get the body right.

Jones is just 1-for-3 from downtown in her last two games, but that’s why these Jonquel Jones odds are even being offered this low. Prior to that, she’d hit at least two in seven straight contests. Jones is a 43.6% shooter, so regression favors a return to form in Atlanta.

Jonquel Jones prop: Over 1.5 made 3s (-122 at FanDuel)