Best WNBA Player Props Today: Carter Can't Be Contained

Prop bet #1: Storm can't solve Carter 

Chennedy Carter has officially arrived. 

Carter’s transformation from out of the league last season to a training camp contract with the Chicago Sky then to bench scorer, to starter, and to frontrunner for Most Improved Player has been breathtaking to watch.

I’ve sung Carter’s praises before, but she continues to blow away any and all expectations. She’s not just a quality starter, she’s thrust her way into conversations among the game’s elite in a very short period of time. She’s coming off the best game of her career, a 15-for-24, 33-point masterpiece against the same Seattle Storm squad she’ll face Sunday night.

And for a W guard, she does it in such an unconventional way. She eschews taking threes almost entirely in favor of a relentless driving style akin to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder. 

She’s a master manipulator of screens and has excellent chemistry with Angel Reese and Kamila Cardoso. Even though she’s not a threat to shoot from outside, she punishes teams that go under screens against her by attacking the space and either dribbling around her defender or drawing fouls.

The Storm are a solid defensive team, but their one consistent weakness has been allowing more points in the paint than you might expect. At 38.2 points per game, only the struggling Dallas Wings allow more. I’m expecting her to eat up that space and make these Chennedy Carter odds look far too conservative yet again.

Chennedy Carter prop: Over 18.5 points (-114 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Plum puts up points vs. Wings

The Las Vegas Aces are having a peculiar season. A’ja Wilson is playing at a level that few WNBA players have ever reached, and yet the team is sitting at a pedestrian (by their standard) 12-7 record. In part, this is related to their season-long defensive issues, but they’ve also lacked a certain level of organization on offense in the absence of Chelsea Gray. 

Kelsey Plum has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of having Gray back in the rotation. Everything with the Aces just flows better with Gray back running the offense, and it’s ignited Plum’s aggression on offense to a degree that has been sorely missing for much of the season.

Plum is of course owed a great deal of credit as well, as she continues to improve her offensive game by working more as a driver. Plum came into the W as a player reliant on her shot to activate offense, but now she’s attacking the paint with the best of them and forcing opposing defenses into rotation with her consistent blow bys.

She’s been on a scoring tear recently, which is not reflected in these Kelsey Plum odds. Plum is averaging 21.2 points over her last five games, and that’s despite having an uncharacteristic 1-for-8, 2-point outing against the Washington Mystics in that span.

Dallas is only narrowly ahead of the last-placed Indiana Fever in defensive rating. They desperately miss Satou Sabally on the wing, and in her absence, everyone else is asked to do just a bit too much to defend the perimeter.

Kelsey Plum prop: Over 18.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Ogunbowale takes and makes

This looks like a lost season for the Dallas Wings, but the consistent production by Arike Ogunbowale despite the adverse circumstances has to be encouraging to Dallas fans thinking of the future.

One thing about Arike Ogunbowale is you can always rely on her to take a high volume of shots. She’s the only true shot creator on the perimeter for the Wings right now, and she can generate decent looks in isolation against even quality defenders.

Ogunbowale is known as a bit of a gunner, but she’s capable of getting into an otherworldly flow for long stretches at times. That’s been the case of late, as over her last 10 games Arike is shooting 39.6% from deep and making 3.6 per game. 

She’s hit at least three triples in seven of her last 10 games, and the Aces consistently allow opponents to get gobs of above-the-break treys. Only a few teams allow more attempts from downtown than Las Vegas, and that’s Arike’s comfort zone.

Other books are offering this same prop with the Over significantly more juiced, but at the number offered by bet365, these Arike Ogunbowale odds are a sound play.

Arike Ogunbowale prop: Over 2.5 made 3s (-160 at bet365)