Best WNBA Player Props Today: Stewie Dialed In From Distance

Prop bet #1: Reese gets no resistance

The Dallas Wings are banged up. Not only is Satou Sabally still out, but promising second year player Maddy Siegrist just suffered a broken finger, and the team’s other top scorers in Arike Ogunbowale and Natasha Howard are also unlikely to play on Thursday.

A thin team can quickly become a tired, disjointed team, and I believe that adds real value to these Angel Reese odds. Reese is a fascinating prospect and while she still has a ways to go to become an efficient scorer, her motor and tenacity are already elite. 

She’s had her struggles scoring around the basket, but she’s also leading the entire W in offensive rebounds, and more often than not she’s turning her own missed shots into immediate putbacks. She’s seen her minutes and role within the team steadily rise as she proves how valuable she is to the Chicago Sky’s success, and that’s seen her minutes creep from the low to mid-20s into the 30s over the last five or so games.

Reese is also smart. She knows where her advantage lies against Teaira McCowan and it’s not attacking her size with straight post-ups. Instead, she’ll beat her with speed. Reese’s highest pace game of the season came against the Wings earlier this season. If you beat the post to the basket, you don’t need to worry about them blocking you.

No team allows more opponent fastbreak points than the Wings. Expect Angel to punish Dallas’ lumbering frontcourt in transition on Thursday. 

Angel Reese prop: Over 12.5 points (-120 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Jam with Jones

I backed similar Jonquel Jones odds last week and she repaid me with a 34-point virtuoso performance against the Las Vegas Aces. Her advantage on Thursday stands out as even more stark as the New York Liberty square off against a depleted Los Angeles Sparks squad.

The Sparks are going to be scrambling because they’ve lost Cameron Brink for the season after she unfortunately tore her ACL against the Connecticut Sun on Tuesday.

Brink was already a brilliant rim protector as a rookie, and one of her best traits was her mobility. With Azura Stevens also continuing to miss time, the Sparks' depth is very limited in the front court. 

That means Li Yueru will play big minutes and match up with Jones for much of them. Li’s size and length are real assets as a traditional five, but Jonquel is not a traditional cover as she’s too fluid as a ball handler and impactful as a shooter. When lumbering bigs are forced to guard her to match her size, she torches them from range or by putting the ball on the deck.

In theory, Dearica Hamby would be a decent matchup, but the Sparks need her to guard the even greater offensive threat that is reigning WNBA MVP Breanna Stewart. 

Jonquel’s increased aggression over the last several games has not seen her world class efficiency dip one bit. She’s taking more than 13 shots a game and hitting them at an outrageous 64.6% clip, including 57.1% of her threes. 

Jones is up to 22.4 points per game over the same span and has scored at least 17 in four straight. Last year’s lower production while she was still rehabbing her knee injury is looking more and more like the anomaly, which makes this another of my favorite bets on Thursday.

Jonquel Jones prop: Over 16.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Stew's cooking

Speaking of Stewie, one of the more important developments of the Liberty’s season so far may have come in their recent loss to the Phoenix Mercury. While the Liberty are off to a strong start again this season at 13-3, Stewart has quietly been struggling from deep.

Indeed, Stewart is at just 23% on the season from 3-point range, after being just a hair below 36% for her career. She had been one for her last 13 from outside until she broke through against Phoenix on Tuesday when she went 4-for-4 from the perimeter in a series of increasingly audacious and confident-looking attempts.

Stewart’s wing skillset at traditional big size makes it virtually impossible to block her jumper Only the likes of A’ja Wilson truly has the combination of size and dexterity to make her sweat. Hamby, her most natural defender, is also being asked to carry a heavy load on offense as L.A.’s primary option.

Stewart is flat out too good of a player and a shooter to stay in a slump for long. She’s averaged over two makes from deep in both of her last two seasons, so it’s a matter of when, not if, her numbers begin to return to career norms. 

Given the significant plus money value being offered at FanDuel for these Breanna Stewart odds, I’m betting her success against Phoenix will help shake her out of this strange funk she’s been in.

Breanna Stewart prop: Over 1.5 made 3s (+162 at FanDuel)