The New York Liberty and Connecticut Sun will look to take a firm grip on their semifinal series tonight as the WNBA playoffs heat up.
My top WNBA picks skip the most prolific scorers and focus instead on other key contributors who’ll need to seize the postseason stage in these Tuesday, October 1 showdowns.
WNBA player prop bets for October 1
- Kelsey Plum Over 17.5 points (-120 at BetMGM)
- Courtney Williams Over 10.5 points (-108 at FanDuel)
- Alyssa Thomas Over 9.5 rebounds (+108 at FanDuel)
Today's best WNBA player props bets
Prop bet #1: Kelsey Plum Over 17.5 points
Kelsey Plum didn’t want to bask in her sweet-shooting performance after the Las Vegas Aces dropped Game 1, but there’s been a lot to like in her past two outings.
Plum finished with 24 points at the weekend on 9-for-17 shooting, including four 3-pointers, and Las Vegas will need something similar to square the series tonight.
There were some raised eyebrows when Plum served up a two-point dud to open the first round against the Seattle Storm, but she was right back on track in the closeout game, pouring in 29 points and making 11 of her 15 shots.
A’ja Wilson can’t do it alone for the Aces. This New York Liberty team is too good and too deep to let it happen. That puts the onus on Plum to be aggressive again in Game 2, especially if Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young aren’t scoring efficiently.
She’s gone past this number in six of her last nine contests, and it’s hard to see Las Vegas clawing its way back into the series unless she’s dialed in from downtown again.
Prop bet #2: Courtney Williams Over 10.5 points
Minnesota’s ice-cold fourth quarter was a credit to the defensive strengths on the Connecticut roster, but I’m not ready to count out Napheesa Collier & Co. just yet.
This is essentially a must-win game for the Minnesota Lynx, and I’m banking on a better shooting night for the hosts, particularly from 3-point range (they went 5-for-20 on Sunday).
In that respect, Courtney Williams is a key piece of the puzzle. Minnesota is at its best when backcourt duo Williams and Kayla McBride are decisive on the perimeter, cashing in on all the attention Collier draws in the paint.
Williams’ numbers have dipped over the past few weeks, but it’s not for a lack of shot volume. She’s had double-digit field goal attempts in six of her past seven outings, and the veteran guard chipped in with 11 points in the Game 2 victory over the Phoenix Mercury last week.
The Lynx need an all-action spark from Williams tonight — and I see her delivering some scoring punch.
Prop bet #3: Alyssa Thomas Over 9.5 rebounds
No team thrives on a bruising, low-scoring rockfight more than the Connecticut Sun. They held the Lynx to just eight points over the final 10 minutes in Game 1, but the 73-70 score didn’t stop Connecticut star Alyssa Thomas from putting up another eye-popping stat line.
Thomas ended up one assist shy of a triple-double, and there’s every reason to expect another busy night on the glass here. She’s had 10 boards in two of her three contests so far in the 2024 postseason, and there won’t be many breathers either — Thomas played 39 minutes on Sunday.
Connecticut grabbed a vital 39-32 rebounding edge two nights ago, as Thomas and DeWanna Bonner kept Collier and Alanna Smith at bay, and that feels like the pivotal battleground again tonight.
An O/U total of 152.5 suggests the defenses will make some noise again here, and even if the Lynx shoot a better percentage, I’m taking these plus odds for Thomas to breeze past her regular season average of 8.4 rpg.
Today’s WNBA games
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