Best WNBA Player Props Today: Loyd Buoys Storm Scoring

Prop bet #1: Mystics’ woes continue

Sixth-year veteran Karlie Samuelson is certainly not playing poorly, taking 5.2 threes per game and making nearly two of them while shooting 33.9% from deep. But that's a far cry from the 42.6% she shot from beyond the arc last year with the Sparks, a showing that earned her a healthy two-year deal with the Washington Mystics.

Samuelson’s struggles from deep have played a part in Washington's 0-12 start, though they are far from solely to blame. She has hit multiple threes just four times in 12 games, going 8-of-36 (22.2%) in those other eight games.

Somehow, two of those four games of success were against the Connecticut Sun, the second-best 3-point defense in the league, though neither game was particularly close. In recent weeks, the only other success Samuelson has enjoyed came against the Indiana Fever, going 3-of-9 from deep against the second-worst 3-point defense in the league.

The Atlanta Dream rank No. 3 in 3-point percentage against, costing Samuelson any such elevated hope. She will not get loose tonight, a ninth night early this season when the shooter fails to provide the Mystics what they sought.

Karlie Samuelson prop: Under 1.5 made threes (-115 at BetRivers)

Prop bet #2: Marvelous Kayla McBride

Shooters are not supposed to shoot this well. Through 11 games, Kayla McBride has exceeded all understanding of what a shooter should be able to maintain, hitting 3.9 threes per game on 51.2% shooting.

In her last two games, McBride has stretched plausibility somehow further, going 15-of-23 (65.2%). But even if ignoring those two highlights, McBride was making 3.1 threes per game on 45.9% shooting. She had hit at least four 3-pointers in four of nine games, this week’s pair making it six of 11.

But do not bet on her to continue this surge tonight solely because of those numbers. Also, realize Las Vegas is ripe to be exposed in this particular regard.

No one is giving up a higher 3-point percentage than the Aces’ defense, at 37.7%. Only the Mercury give up more looks and makes per game.

That is the exact wrong defensive failing to carry into a game against McBride and the Lynx right now.

Kayla McBride prop: Over 3.5 made threes (+132 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Loyd leads

There is a more conventional approach to this bet. Jewell Loyd’s points prop is set at 21.5, with the Over juiced to -120 at DraftKings. But that is two points and 20 cents higher than the next-highest points prop available, Dearica Hamby at 19.5 (+100).

So taking Loyd to be tonight’s top scorer in the latest game provides 20 cents of added value versus simply playing her points prop. Such value is worth the risk of Hamby or Nneka Ogwumike (17.5 at -105 on the Over) challenging Loyd to be the most prolific bucket-getter in Seattle.

Focusing solely on Loyd, she has scored 25 in each of her last two games and has averaged 21.75 in her last four. She is not shooting well, just 37.7% in those four games, but she is not about to stop shooting, either. Loyd has taken fewer than 17 shots in just two of 11 games this season.

Facing a below-average defense in the Los Angeles Sparks, Loyd should continue to get her looks. At +100, those looks yield us value.

Jewell Loyd prop: Top points scorer (+100 at BetRivers)