Best WNBA Player Props Today: Ogunbowale Outstanding vs Aces

Prop bet #1: Wil' to win

Let’s start with the two-time defending champs in the Las Vegas Aces and their all-world center A’ja Wilson, who has been absolute gangbusters of late. She starts the day just a tick behind Arike Ogunbowale for the scoring lead at 26.5 points per game with a WNBA-best 12.5 rebounds per contest.

While Vegas is coming off its second loss of the season, Wilson lit up Atlanta for 28 points, nine rebounds, three assists, and four blocks. That’s after coming off a pair of 29-point, 15-rebound performances in back-to-back wins over the Minnesota Lynx and Indiana Fever. She’s done that against two of the Top 4 scoring defenses in the WNBA, and the Caitlin Clark hype train.

Now she gets a Dallas squad that happens to rank Bottom-3 in scoring defense, surrendering 83 points a game. In her last four games against the Wings last season — including three playoff games — she’s topped her 25.5-point total three times while averaging 26.3 points per game.

A'ja Wilson prop: Over 25.5 points (-120 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Arike's aim is true

While Wilson is on an upward trajectory, Dallas Wings scoring leader Arike Ogunbowale has hit a wall by her lofty standards, scoring 21 or less in three straight games. But the books have generously dropped her scoring line to a gettable 23.5 points, and there’s reason to believe she can turn it around.

After opening the season with four straight games of 24 points or more — including a 40-bomb on Phoenix — Ogunbowale tallied a season-low 20 points against the L.A. Sparks in a brutal 7-for-30 outing.

The schedule-maker did her no favors to shake that performance, as she faced the No. 1 defense of Connecticut next and scored 21 points, a point total matched when Ogunbowale went against the Lynx’s third-ranked defense. She shot a combined 14-for-38 in those games, a rough 36.8% clip.

While Vegas is formidable, they present the first get-right opportunity, as they are a team that ranks in the bottom half in scoring defense, surrendering 80.7 points per game.

The Aces are also the worst 3-point shooting defense in the league, allowing teams to fire at a staggering 41.3% rate. This should help Ogunbowale, who attempts the second-most triples in the W at 8.7 per contest.

A head-to-head battle featuring the league's Top 2 scorers should also provide incentive to push her scoring back to an elite level.

Arike Ogunbowale prop: Over 23.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Weak Lynx

We’ll wrap up these props with Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier, one of three players in the league this season to average a double-double. She just posted her sixth double-double already this year, with 24 points and 14 boards in a win against the Wings.

Collier has only been held under 10 rebounds twice this year, pulling down eight against Atlanta on May 26, and nine against Seattle on May 17. However, her rebounding body of work against the Sparks hasn’t been great — at least not against the 10.5-rebounding line offered for Wednesday.

In 12 career games against L.A., Collier has mustered 10 or more rebounds just twice, and has never averaged 10 or more rebounds against them in any season. L.A. also happens to rank third in fewest opponent rebounds this season, surrendering just 33.5 per contest.

It all adds up to Collier finishing with single-digit rebounds against the Sparks yet again.

Napheesa Collier prop: Under 10.5 rebounds (+100 at DraftKings)