When it comes to the WNBA food chain, there’s the Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty — then everyone else.
It’s why you won’t find those two top franchises available in the WNBA odds to make the playoffs for the upcoming 2024 season. It’s a given (based on win totals and projections) that the Aces and Liberty will qualify for the postseason come September.
Things aren’t so cut-and-dry for the other 10 teams.
If we look back at recent WNBA postseasons, qualifying teams won around 44% of their games (the size of the regular season schedule has changed the past four seasons), with 18 wins in the new 40-game sked getting the Chicago Sky into the eighth and final playoff spot last year.
Based on my 2024 WNBA power ratings and win total projections, here are my best WNBA picks and predictions to either make or miss the playoffs this upcoming season.
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Minnesota Lynx – make playoffs
If you read my WNBA season win total breakdown, you’ll know I’m forecasting big things for the Minnesota Lynx in 2024.
Minnesota has a superstar in Napheesa Collier, a very solid starting five, and good veteran depth. If the Lynx can tighten the bolts on defense, I could see this team winning 20-plus games.
Based on those projections, Minnesota should have the “Yes” side of this postseason prop priced in the -250 range. But with books dealing a win total of only 16.5 O/U, we’re getting a discount on a team that could easily be No. 3 in the West.
Pick: Minnesota Lynx – make playoffs (-140 at DraftKings)
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Washington Mystics – miss playoffs
Usually, I’d never promote this pricy a prop but there’s no way the Washington Mystics make the playoffs in 2024. I’m not trying to be shitty. Compared to the other clubs, Washington doesn’t have as much talent or depth, and Elena Delle Donne’s departure takes away one of the most impactful players in the league (Top 5 in Player Impact Estimate).
My rankings call for fewer than 12 wins in an admitted “rebuild” season, and this -450 price on the “No” is a steal compared to other books, which are as high as -600 on the same bet.
Pick: Washington Mystics – miss playoffs (-450 at DraftKings)
Phoenix Mercury – miss playoffs
After promoting that pricy prop above, we need a palate cleanser. I offer this plus-money flyer on the Phoenix Mercury to miss the playoffs.
On paper, Phoenix looks good. The core veterans Diana Taurasi, Brittney Griner, and Sophie Cunningham remain, along with additions Kaleah Copper, Natasha Cloud, Rebecca Allen, and Morgan Bertsch. Surpassing last year’s nine wins should be a given with that lineup.
What’s not written in pen is how those new players will gel with the old guard, and I mean old. Taurasi and Griner will need nights off, especially after the Olympic break when the schedule squeezes the final 15 games into 35 days. Phoenix also has a brand-new coach in Nate Tibbetts, who’s starting over from scratch in a challenging Western Conference.
My ratings have the Mercury in line for 19 wins, which is right on that cusp of qualification. Chemistry issues could have Phoenix stumbling out of the gate, and a couple of bad losses late would drop that win total to 17 or 18, which gives value to the +280 offering on “No” playoffs for the Mercury.
Pick: Phoenix Mercury – miss playoffs (+280 at FanDuel)
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Atlanta Dream – make playoffs (-200 bet365)
The Atlanta Dream ran hot and cold last season, but even after losing 15 of the final 22 contests their 19 wins were enough to qualify for the playoffs. I have Atlanta pegged for closer to 20 wins in 2024 and the ceiling is much higher based on roster improvements this offseason.
Atlanta returns a trio of top scorers in Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray, and Cheyenne Parker-Tyus — all averaged 15-plus points — and bolstered the roster with veterans Jordin Canada, Aerial Powers, and Tina Charles. When clicking, the Dream can score with any team in the WNBA. Given my forecast, the Dream should be listed around -270, but a couple books are offering a clean -200 on their postseason chances.
Pick: Atlanta Dream – make playoffs (-200 at bet365)
