Best WNBA Player Props Today: Jones Back to Her Old Self

New York’s other MVP

The New York Liberty have arrived, and Jonquel Jones is the main reason why. Beating the Las Vegas Aces twice in a row is no mean feat, even if the Aces eventually got theirs back on Thursday night. The difference in those games, both the wins and the losses, has been the impact of the former MVP from the Bahamas.

Now that Jones is fully recovered from her offseason injury, she has clearly demonstrated that she’s the most important player on the Liberty, save Breanna Stewart. Her ability to score at the rim and from outside makes her a difficult proposition for most W teams, and it should prove near impossible for the Phoenix Mercury.

Brittney Griner is a more traditional center, bigger and stronger than Jones, but Jones has the length to guard her just fine. What Griner doesn’t have to the same degree is the mobility to get all the way out to the arc to guard JJ, and certainly not in transition when the Liberty push the pace and Griner’s first responsibility is to deny the rim.

Jones’ prop lines are still being anchored to her earlier-season self, limited both physically and in terms of minutes in a way she is definitively not anymore. Until those adjust, her props are going to be some of the better ones out there.

Jonquel only finished with eight points and eight rebounds last night, but that’s only because some questionable foul calls had her limited to just 24 minutes of action. She’s scored over 13 points in seven of her last 10 games and is averaging 13.4 in that same span. Unleashed for her normal stint, she should have no problem eclipsing this line.

Jonquel Jones prop: Over 12.5 points (-115 at bet365)

Stewin’ on it

In many instances, I’m hesitant to bank on players going over their average coming off a back-to-back like the Liberty are. But I’m backing two such plays today, the second being Brenna Stewart taking out some pent-up frustration against the hapless Phoenix defense.

Stewart scored only 26 points on 7-31 shooting over her past two games, both against Las Vegas. She’ll be making a point to come out strong against Phoenix, who, not for nothing, she dropped 43 points against earlier this season.

After going against the swarming intensity of A’ja Wilson or Kiah Stokes hounding you on every possession, playing against the Mercury is going to feel like playing in low gravity for Stewie. 

Unlike most MVP team-ups, there is very little overlap in Stewie and JJ’s games. While they both score, defend, and shoot, they don't occupy the same parts of the court, and their talents serve to naturally amplify each other. Jonquel stretching the floor at the five allows Stewie to abuse smaller forwards in the midrange, while Stewart handling the ball above the arc lets Jones dominate other centers one on one in the paint. 

Stewart is one of the very worst matchups for the Mercury because they don’t have a true forward-sized player who can move with her the way she does, coming off screens for three, making hard cuts to the basket, and pulling up smoothly from the midrange. While Griner might otherwise take away some of the pressure at the rim in another matchup, she’ll be limited in her rim protection impact due to the presence of Jones.

At this level of competition, it’s never about whether Stewie can score, it’s the degree to which she wants to. If she wants to get 30, only a handful of teams can truly deny her. And having just been denied twice, I’m banking on Stewart coming out guns blazing against the Mercury.

Breanna Stewart prop: Over 21.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)

Jewell of a jumper

Jewell Loyd has taken to being the No. 1 option on the Seattle Storm like a fish takes to water. But even a natural scorer like her is bound to hit cold streaks, particularly given the historic level of volume and overall responsibility that she bears for the Storm on a nightly basis.

It’s exhausting being face-guarded twenty feet from the hoop for 40 minutes at a time (and she does frequently play nearly the entire 40) while also having to be the team's primary on-ball creator, ball handler, and shooter. So, while some sportsbooks are knocking down Loyd’s 3-point prop today because she’s had a string of three bad shooting performances including a ghastly 0-8 night against the Connecticut Sun recently, I believe now is the time to get back in.

Even though the vig on this play is heavy, it’s a steal to get almost any number at Loyd over 1.5 3-pointers made. This is a player who is shooting 38.1% from downtown, is going to take a high number of those shots in any context, and has been off since Sunday and so is guaranteed to have fresh legs.

Oh, and she’s going against the Minnesota Lynx who allow the highest number of opponent 3-point attempts in the W by a wide margin. 

Jewell Loyd prop: Over 1.5 3-pointers made (-156 at FanDuel)