Best WNBA Player Props Today: Buckets Hard to Come By

Take These Broken Wings

The Dallas Wings could be down All-Star forward Satou Sabally after she injured her ankle at the end of Tuesday’s road date in Minnesota.

Sabally, who was seen wearing a walking boot after the game, is questionable for this rematch with the Minnesota Lynx. That leaves a number of offensive touches up for grabs and the WNBA betting markets are hinting as to where those shots might land.

Fellow forward Natasha Howard has a scoring prop of 15.5 points (Over -115) at most markets but that total is as high as 17.5 points at others, jumping up from the lower opening number. Howard, who is averaging just under 17 points per game, has player projections north of 19 points with a much higher ceiling if Sabally sits out.

Sabally is averaging 14 field goal attempts in a breakout 2023 season and if she’s sidelined, Howard could see some of those touches. Dallas faces a Minnesota team struggling to slow down opponents, ranked 10th in defensive rating and allowing more than 83 points per road game.

Howard just posted 16 points on 6-for-16 shooting against the Lynx on Tuesday and scored 28 points at Minnesota on July 12, shooting 11-for-20 from the floor in the Wings’ 40-point blowout win. She also had 25 points on 11-of-15 shooting against the Lynx at home back in May.

Go grab those low 15.5-point totals now before the entire market adjusts.

Natasha Howard Total Points: Over 15.5 (-111 at FanDuel)

Wheels Fall Off

Two of the WNBA’s basement dwellers duke it out when the Seattle Storm visit the Indiana Fever. While the Storm have struggled throughout the season, they’ve been putting up a good fight in recent outings.

Seattle is 6-4 SU in its last 10 games, thanks in large part to an uptick in defensive intensity. The Storm boast a defensive rating of 98.9 in that span (third lowest) while giving up just 77.6 average points - 42.6 of those points to guards.

Indiana guard Erica Wheeler has a scoring prop of 11.5 points Thursday, which is a tick up from her season average of 10.3 points.

The nine-year veteran has upped her production to 12.4 points per outing over the last 14 games but is coming off a quiet seven points in Sunday’s win over Phoenix, finishing just 1 for 7 from the floor.

Following the game, Wheeler sent out a tweet (or Xeet? I dunno) that hinted that she was dealing with an illness, which may have led to that poor performance. The Fever (no pun intended) have been off since Sunday and there’s been no other mentions of an illness for the Indiana guard.

Indiana plays one of the more methodical attacks in the WNBA in terms of pace and given that this is Seattle’s third straight road game in a window of five days, tempo overall could be down. These teams met back on July 30 with Seattle winning 85-62 in a contest that finished 16 points below the closing total and boasted a sluggish 90.0 pace rating.

Wheeler went 4 for 10 from the floor and scored nine points in 23 minutes in that meeting and could find points hard to come by in this grinder, especially if she is under the weather.

Erica Wheeler Total Points: Under 11.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

Slow Played Aces

Las Vegas Aces star A’ja Wilson made it very clear that she’s the WNBA’s MVP by tying a league-record 53 points in the win at Atlanta on Tuesday.

Wilson, who went 16 for 23 in that effort, has been wrecking opponents in recent games. Before torching the Dream, she posted outings of 28, 40, 21, 21, and 25 points in five of the six games prior to that explosion.

The Aces blow into the Windy City for their second stop of a four-game road swing that sends the reigning champs to Washington on Saturday before another monster matchup with New York on August 28.

Wilson’s offensive outpouring has her scoring prop jacked up to 22.5 points, which is right on her season scoring rate. Player projections, however, come in at 19.7 points, giving up good value to sell high on the best player in the league.

The Chicago Sky aren’t going to push back on her production much, entering Thursday with the second worst home defensive rating in the land. Wilson dropped totals of 21 and 24 points on Chicago earlier in the schedule, but it may not be her opponent limiting her effectiveness tonight.

Las Vegas is already booked into the postseason and while the No. 1 overall seed (and home court in the finals) is still up for grabs, head coach Becky Hammon is always conscious of protecting her stars in the home stretch. Even before last week’s hyped meeting with the Liberty, Hammon was talking about keeping her key pieces healthy.

“We’re going to play a lot more people coming down the stretch because I need rested bodies going into the playoffs; I can’t deplete us,” Hammon told The Athletic about planning for the postseason.

Tonight’s point spread is a big one, with Las Vegas laying -14.5 on the road. Game script calls for a one-sided finish and a chance for coach Hammon to rest her staters during the grind of this current road swing and save legs for more competitive contests with the Mystics and Liberty later in the trip.

A’ja Wilson Total Points: Under 22.5 (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)