Best WNBA Player Props Today: Griner Brings the Boards

If there’s a Williams, there’s a way

The Chicago Sky have only one win in their last seven games, and it happened to come against today’s opponent, the Seattle Storm.

That 102-79 final score saw minutes from Chicago’s starters tempered, including floor time for standout center Elizabeth Williams. She finished the day with only eight points and five rebounds in just 23 minutes. However, Williams usually logs much more action and is projected for a big game on the boards today.

Williams, who averages just shy of six rebounds on the season, has been more active on the glass in the second half of the campaign. The 6-foot-3 veteran has been snatching 6.6 boards per game since July and has topped that mark in three of her last five outings.

WNBA player projections have Williams forecast for north of seven rebounds against the Storm, who sit seventh in the 12-team league in rebound rate. In her last trip to Seattle, Williams recorded eight boards despite being limited to only 20 minutes due to foul trouble.

Player prop odds are presenting solid positive expected value on Williams’ rebound total, with the Over 6.5 priced as high as +135. Given the player projections, the odds on the Over 6.5 should be flipped to a -135 range.

Elizabeth Williams total rebounds: Over 6.5 (+135 at bet365)

Feed a fever

The Indiana Fever are outside the postseason picture but would love to play the role of spoiler to the Atlanta Dream’s playoff plans when ATL comes to Gainbridge Fieldhouse this afternoon.

Indiana isn’t “turning on the tank” and has seen a recent uptick in offense, scoring at least 80 points in five of the past six games (the other was a 79-point performance) and boasting an offensive rating of 108.5 in that span — third-highest in the WNBA and a major improvement on their rating of 100.1 before this stretch.

Helping those metrics along was a calendar packed with poor defensive clubs, including the Dream who have hemorrhaged points in August, allowing 84.2 points an outing this month. These teams did clash back on August 6 with Atlanta winning 82-73 at home, but the Fever were down star forward NaLyssa Smith for that contest.

Smith, who averages more than 15 points and nine rebounds on the season, was sidelined with a foot injury for that meeting and was playing her way back into form under restricted minutes for most of August. The 6-foot-4 standout is now back to regular floor time and has scored 16 and 25 points in her past two outings.

Player models for Sunday’s showdown have Smith pegged for more than 16 points in 28 minutes, which is shorter than her action of 32 and 33 minutes in the past two games. That puts her ceiling at 19 points and gives bettors a lot of headroom on her scoring prop.

WNBA player markets have Smith’s point prop as low as 14.5 (Over -125) while other shops are at 15.5 (Over -132), reflecting her limited output earlier in the month. Given her projections, the Over 14.5 points should be priced out more in the -152 range.

NaLyssa Smith Total Points: Over 14.5 (-125 at DraftKings)

Boards by BG

The Phoenix Mercury welcome back star center Brittney Griner after she missed the last three games due to an illness. In fact, Griner has played only four times in the Mercury’s past 10 games after taking time for her mental health earlier in the month.

In those limited spots, Griner has upped her efforts on the glass. She’s posted rebounding totals of 10, 10, eight, and six and faces a rebound prop of 6.5 boards (Over +100) against the Dallas Wings tonight.

Griner hasn’t been that big on the boards in 2023, pulling down an average of just 6.2 rebounds a night in the first two months of the schedule. However, since July, BG has brought down 7.6 boards an outing and has upped that average to 8.5 in her four August appearances.

While the Wings are the top rebounding team in the WNBA, they are likely without injured All-Star forward Satou Sabally again on Sunday, leaving a hole in their frontcourt. Dallas also attempts the most field goals in the league and plays the third-fastest pace, which means a lot of shots — and more rebounding chances.

Griner’s player projections call for a ceiling close to nine rebounds over 30 minutes of floor time. Given that forecast and the EVEN money price tag on Over 6.5, I like the +EV on BG to grab seven or more rebounds tonight.

Brittney Griner Total Rebounds: Over 6.5 (+100 at bet365)