Best WNBA Player Props Today: Ionescu Stays Hot From the Perimeter

Prop bet #1: Sabrina's Salvo

As one would expect, Sabrina Ionescu’s role this season has shifted with the additions of Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones. While 3-point shooting has always been an element of her game, now it’s her primary weapon on offense.

While her overall shots per game have dropped from 14.3 to 12.8 as her co-stars eat up possessions, her 3-point attempts have risen from 6.9 to eight even. And more of those shots are coming off movement or spot-ups, instead of in the past when they’ve been primarily self-generated.

As a result, her efficiency has skyrocketed from 33.3% to 42.7%, one of the best marks in the Association. She’s become a five-alarm-fire player wherever she catches the ball on the perimeter and has upped that volume even more recently, going 4.1-9.7 from downtown over her last 10 games.

That number is buoyed quite a bit by her hellacious shooting performance against the Minnesota Lynx back on July 28. In that game, she went a stunning 7-14 from three. That is directly tied to the defense the Lynx play, where they allow the most opponent 3-point attempts of any WNBA team.

Part of that is a calculated gamble to concede triples in favor of defending the rim, and they’ve had some success with that tradeoff of late. But part of it is just bad defense, not knowing personnel, and not fighting hard enough (or playing smart enough) when it comes to screen navigation.

The New York Liberty have some elite screen setters, and they regularly play lineups where all five players can stroke it from behind the arc. That fact alone makes them difficult for great perimeter defense to guard, but it makes it a near certainty that Sabrina will get up a high volume of attempts as New York attempts to avenge its loss from less than a week ago.

Sabrina Ionescu prop: Over 3.5 threes (+110 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Vanderstew

The Liberty might not be as good as the Las Vegas Aces just yet, but with five or so weeks to go in the season, they have found their identity as a team. With an identity and role definition to go alongside their overwhelming talent, they stand a chance against the defending champs.

That identity? Ball movement, player movement, and more shooting than any other W team can muster. Of course, all the shooting and player movement in the world would not add up to much if not for the passing chops of one Courtney Vandersloot. She’s the primary reason the Liberty lead the Association with an assist percentage of 77%.

A champion with the 2021 Chicago Sky, Vandersloot is one of the league’s premier floor generals. She holds the WNBA record for assists per game in a season at 10 and has led the league in assists on six separate occasions. Now her connection to Stewart (and increasingly, Sabrina as well) is proving to be one of the most productive tandems in the association.

With the Lynx likely to concede open shots after one or two passes, Courtney is the prime candidate to reap the rewards in terms of a gaudy assist total. Vandersloot is averaging seven assists over her last 10 games, and eight on the season. 

Courtney Vandersloot prop: Over 6.5 assists (-120 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Spark of hope

The Los Angeles Sparks have been beaten up all year long, with new head coach Curt Miller unable to build anything resembling continuity due to numerous and never-ending absences.

The only rock of consistency for the Sparks has been Nneka Ogwumike, who has played and produced in all 25 of L.A.’s games. Though the Sparks' win/loss record is what it is, Nneka is still an All-Star talent and can be devastating in the right matchup.

The Sparks' opponent on Friday is the Washington Mystics, and they are one of the few teams that have had even worse injury luck than the Sparks. The sustained absences of Elena Delle Donne and Shakira Austin have decimated their ability to defend the interior, so Ogwumike should feast inside tonight.

After having a lock on the top-ranked defense to start the season, the Mystics have played at the level of the 10th-ranked defense since the calendar turned to July. They’ve also seen their calling card as a defense that defends the paint slip away, as they’ve ranked in the bottom half of the W in opponent paint points in that same stretch. That’s precisely where Nneka does her best work.

The Mystics remaining healthy guards, Natasha Cloud and Brittney Sykes have taken to guarding up in size whenever possible, but they’ll struggle to do that in this matchup. For one thing, they still have to contend with Jordin Canada on the perimeter, who is in the midst of a breakout shooting season. Additionally, Nneka is simply too mobile at her size and far too crafty to let undersized opponents keep her off her spots in perpetuity.

Nneka Ogwumike prop: Over 18.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)