Best WNBA Player Props Today: Young Goes Storm Chasing

FG’s up for grabs

The Mercury will be without veteran star Diana Taurasi tonight, which means there are plenty of touches to go around for the other starters.

Taurasi’s 12 field goal attempts per game leave a gap in the offense and I’m looking to fellow guard Moriah Jefferson to see an uptick in activity against the visiting Sky.

Jefferson has a scoring prop of 10.5 points (Over +100), a number I believe doesn’t reflect the shift in shot opportunities for the 5-foot-6 guard. Her player projections sit as high as 13.9 points and as low as 9.23 with Jefferson expected to log at least 24 minutes.

Even given a more modest projection, Jefferson’s point prop should be priced more like Over 10.5 -103, giving us excellent positive expected value with the Over paying EVEN money as of Thursday afternoon.

She excelled when Taurasi was out of the lineup earlier this season, putting up scoring efforts of 10, 11, and 12 points when Phoenix’s captain missed time in the middle of June. Jefferson averaged more than 11 field goal attempts in that span — an increase from her average of 8.8 shot attempts an outing.

Jefferson has played very well in July, taking her scoring average up to 10.7 and shooting 10 field goal attempts an outing the past six games. She faces a Chicago team giving up points in bulk this month, allowing more than 85 points against over its last four showings.

Moriah Jefferson Total Points: Over 10.5 (+100 at FanDuel)

Young at heart

If the Aces are going to climb the mountain of points in Seattle tonight, they’re going to need buckets. And lots of them. Luckily, Las Vegas has ample scoring options, including guard Jackie Young.

Young has a scoring prop as low as 16.5 (Over -146) for this run-in with the Storm tonight, and her player models range from 17.6 to as high as 24 points.

Even more tempered modeling could see Young hanging another 20-point game on Seattle after dropping 23 and 28 on the Aces’ Western rivals earlier this season. The Over 16.5 points should be priced out closer to -216 while Over 17.5 (which is available at other books) should carry vig around -173 rather than the -115 juice available.

The Storm are a terrible defensive team, especially when it comes to slowing opposing guards. Seattle allows a league-high 57.9 points to the position, with rival guards hitting at a 47% shooting clip.

Young continues to share the scoring load with her talented teammates and is averaging 18 points per game in July, which is down from her scoring output of 19.5 points an outing in the opening two months of the calendar.

The Over 17.5 -115 is the better bet based on return, however, given the monster chalk for this game, things could get a little weird for the Aces’ starters.

Las Vegas does travel to Minnesota for Saturday and should the team get up big (when the team gets up big), the starters may take a seat down the stretch of tonight’s game as head coach Becky Hammon rests those key contributors. I’ll go low to avoid second-half silliness.

Jackie Young Total Points: Over 16.5 (-146 at FanDuel)

Cooling on Collier

Lynx forward Napheesa Collier is having one hell of a season and started the second half of the schedule by dropping a career-high 35 points in Atlanta in the first game back from the All-Star break.

That performance, as well as her past efforts versus the Sparks, has jacked her points prop to 22.5 Over/Under for tonight’s home stand with L.A.

Collier, who averages 21.9 points so far in 2023, has beat up on Los Angeles this season, posting efforts of 24, 25, and 26 points in their three meetings while shooting a collective 60% in those games. So, it only makes sense to go Under, right?

Here's where it gets uncomfortable...

Player projections for Collier are calling for as few as 19.7 points tonight with some flirting with 23 points, but my number sits 20.8 points which is still well short of what bookies are asking. That tall total should have the Under priced more in the -150 range rather than the modest -113 the market is asking.

Collier’s most recent showing was impressive, but she has taken a step back in scoring this month, scoring more than 20 points just twice in the past seven games. She averaged 22.4 points in the opening two months of the season but is averaging less than 21 so far in July.

I've been all about the Collier Overs this summer, but I'm off the bandwagon with the point total ticking too high tonight.

Napheesa Collier Total Points: Under 22.5 (-113 at FanDuel)