Best WNBA Player Props Today: Jones Will Own the Boards Against Indy

Making most of Mystics MASH unit

The Mystics have a tough road ahead with so many key players sidelined to start the second half of the WNBA schedule. Washington is missing Elena Delle Donne, Shakira Austin, and Ariel Atkins, leaving guard Brittney Sykes to shoulder the scoring load.

Sykes has answered the call for the most part. Even with a bad shooting night against Indiana in the first game back from the break (scored only nine points), Sykes is averaging 21.4 points over the past five outings and enters this 1 p.m. ET encounter with Phoenix with a scoring prop of 17.5 (Over -115).

Player models sit north of 18 points for the 5-foot-9 guard, ranging from 18.7 to as high as 19.5 points. Sykes is shooting almost 16 field goal attempts per game during this five-game span — vs. just 10.5 FGA on the season — and doing a great job getting the foul line for bonus buckets.

The Mercury own the worst defensive rating on the road (111.7) and give up just shy of 90 points per away game. Sykes scored 16 points on 6-of-9 shooting vs. Phoenix back on June 16, playing only 19 minutes in a 88-69 blowout. Her player projections for today are calling for 15.7 field goal attempts over 32 minutes of floor time.

Brittney Sykes Prop: Over 17.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)

BG on the boards

Washington’s depleted frontcourt leaves little size to battle Mercury big Brittney Griner this afternoon.

The Mystics have had to plug in reserve forwards Tianna Hawkins and Myisha Hines-Allen — who run 6-foot-3 and 6-foot-1 — with EDD and Austin out. They’ll have their hands full against the 6-foot-9 Griner, who has upped her rebounding efforts in July.

Griner is averaging 7.6 boards per outing this month, compared to just 6.2 in the opening two months of play, including 11 rebounds in the team’s one-sided win over Chicago last time out.

Player projections for Griner are calling for about 8.5 rebounds and the WNBA prop markets have BG’s rebounding total parked at 7.5 (Over -115).

The Mystics own the second-lowest rebound rate in the WNBA (47.5%) just ahead of Phoenix, and that’s with their full starting frontcourt healthy. Since Delle Donne went down at the start of the month, Washington is dead last in rebound percentage at 45.3% and allowing more than 36 rebounds per game to foes.

This rebound market is priced as high as Over 7.5 -128 at some sportsbooks, but you can find the Over as low as -115. Given Griner’s projections on the glass, this prop should be juiced around Over -145.

Brittney Griner Prop: Over 7.5 rebounds (-115 at bet365)

Jump on J.J.

Liberty forward Jonquel Jones has been on an up-and-down ride in her first season in the Big Apple. Injuries have really held back the former WNBA MVP, but she’s starting to get healthy and into the flow of this new-look New York lineup.

Jones is coming off her best performance as a member of the Liberty, scoring 27 points and grabbing 11 rebounds in Friday’s win over Washington. She’s hauled in 27 total boards the past three games and has a modest rebounding prop for Sunday’s date with Indiana.

FanDuel has Jones’ rebounding total parked at 5.5 (Over -146). It’s a number that reflects her season-long average of 6.5 rebounds per contest, with her floor time limited due to ailments, but looking back, Jones has snatched at least six boards in 12 of her last 15 appearances.

Her player projections for Sunday afternoon are well beyond the 5.5-board total posted by bookies, sitting at 7.7 rebounds against a Fever team missing starting 6-foot-4 forward Nalyssa Smith, who averages almost 10 boards a night for Indiana.

As of this writing, FanDuel is the only book with a rebounding prop for Jones. However, more markets may come out closer to tipoff.

I’m laying the -146 juice on the Over — which is a good deal considering this prop should be priced as high as Over 5.5 rebounds -268 — or you could see if other books open 6.5 or offer milestone/alternative on Jones’ work on the glass.

Jonquel Jones Prop: Over 5.5 rebounds (-146 at FanDuel)