Best WNBA Player Props Today: Sky-High for Mabrey

Dynamic Johannes

In seasons past, when Sabrina Ionescu would miss a game due to injury as she did on Tuesday, the New York Liberty were more or less sunk. Now, they have so much duplicative talent that Marine Johannes, a starting caliber player for any other team, can come off the bench and fill in ably in Sabrina’s absence.

Ionescu is once again questionable for today’s contest with a sore hamstring, the same issue that kept her out of New York’s previous game against the Atlanta Dream. With Sabrina out, Johannes played starter’s minutes and finished with 18 points including 4-10 from downtown. While it’s not clear if Sabrina will play or not, hamstrings are one of the more fickle basketball injuries. Given the high likelihood that the Liberty will easily outmatch the 2-7 Phoenix Mercury even without her, I think there’s a good chance New York holds her out again.

Either way, this line is only slightly above Johannes’ season mark of 10 points per game, and she’s still being eased into her new role on the team since returning from her season in France. On paper, she’s the exact kind of player that gives Phoenix so much trouble. 

The Mercury are the worst defensive team in the WNBA with a 105.6 D-rating. Their transition defense is fundamentally broken, and Johannes is a dynamic transition player, a perfect fit with New York’s emphasis on shooting and passing and the desire to stay in constant motion. That style of play is essentially kryptonite to Phoenix, who rely on Brittney Griner to plug the many (many) holes in their defensive shell. The Mercury offense is so disjointed that they give up a turnover on 22% of their possessions, many of which are live ball. Diana Taurasi’s ability to compete defensively has also seriously waned. 

There’s a good chance Johannes ends up starting on Sunday but even if she doesn’t, her particular strengths are enough to see her eclipse this line.

Marine Johannes prop: Over 11.5 points (-108 at FanDuel)

How about Howard?

Rhyne Howard was already an outstanding prospect, but in year two, she’s made a point of not only accentuating her existing strengths but also developing connected skills to let her get to them more frequently. Specifically, she’s grown a lot as a ball handler and driver, which, in turn, has made her best-in-class shooting even more deadly. 

Her last five-game averages of 15.4 points on 33.3% outside shooting aren’t overly impressive, but then you look at the murderer’s row the Dream have gone against in that stretch. They’ve played the Sun and Liberty twice, as well as a game against the Las Vegas Aces. The Indiana Fever are no pushover anymore, but they’re also not in the same tier as those elite teams, particularly not when it comes to perimeter defense.

Howard’s ability to flow from dribble right into her shot motion makes for a lethal combination. Even if she’s dribbling away from the ball pressure, she’s a threat to shoot. That means nothing short of the most in-her-jersey-style defense can deny her if she’s intent on getting a shot off. Nobody on the Fever is likely to pressure her to that extent without committing fouls and sending her to the line in the process.

Indiana doesn’t force turnovers and they give up a high number of opponent assists, which can be indicators of a soft perimeter defense. They also commit a ton of fouls, another sign that they’re often caught out of position. All of which suggests Howard should have a strong game attacking from the outside.

Rhyne Howard prop: Over 17.5 points (-114 at FanDuel)

Maybe it’s Mabrey

Marina Mabrey is in the midst of a breakout season as a member of the Chicago Sky. The fifth-year guard has upped her efficiency significantly over her previous two seasons while also averaging 18.1 points through 10 games. Mabrey is also coming off a 36-point explosion last game against the Fever, a game she nearly won single-handedly despite the absence of Kahleah Copper.

The Sky have six players on the injury report for Sunday, once again including Copper. Copper's absence last time out no doubt provided Mabrey with ample opportunity to score, and she finished with a season-high 38 minutes played. Copper remains questionable for personal reasons, and if she does miss Sunday’s game, Mabrey should have all she can eat on offense.

I would typically bet against any player going Over against the Washington Mystics' defense, but Mabrey has just been that good. The Mystics are banged-up themselves, with three players including Brittney Sykes and Natasha Cloud listed as questionable. Mabrey also had 19 points against the Mystics earlier in the season in just 26 minutes of action and that was despite going just 2-7 from the perimeter. She’s playing with a lot more confidence now and is being trusted to take on much more of the offensive load.

Marina Mabrey prop: Over 18.5 points (-114 at FanDuel)