Best WNBA Player Props Today: Loyd Does Damage From Long Range

Jewell Loyd is projected to do big things tonight — are the books keeping up with the Storm guard's hot start? See why our WNBA prop picks are backing her again.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Jun 22, 2023 • 14:17 ET • 4 min read
Jewell Loyd WNBA props
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

There are three games on the WNBA odds board Thursday night and thousands of different ways to wager on them across the industry, as WNBA betting picks up steam this summer.

The Washington Mystics and Chicago Sky wage war in the Windy City, the Connecticut Sun visit the Minnesota Lynx in a non-conference clash, and the Seattle Storm welcome the Indiana Fever in the 10 p.m. ET tipoff.

I sort through the individual odds and give my best WNBA prop picks and predictions for June 22.

WNBA player prop bets for June 22

  • Mabrey Over 16.5 points
  • Collier Over 7.5 rebounds
  • Loyd Over 3.5 made threes

Picks made on June 22 at 1:40 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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Today's best WNBA player props bets

Sky High

Chicago is out to avenge a loss in D.C. last weekend, wrapping up a home-and-home set with Washington tonight.

The Mystics are missing bodies on the bench and starting guard Natasha Cloud is playing through an illness that had her listed as questionable earlier in the day. That potentially slows one of Washington's best backcourt defenders, taking on a Chicago team that thrives on its own floor.

The Sky average 14 more points per game inside the Wintrust Arena backed by the league’s second-highest home offensive rating. A big part of that production is Marina Mabrey.

The 5-foot-11 guard is having a breakout year after being traded to the Sky this offseason, averaging 17.5 points and enjoying a stellar month of June in which she’s put forth efforts of 20, 28, and 36 points for Chicago.

Her player projections for Thursday range from 15.5 to 16.8 to as high as 19.1 against a scoring prop market that sits between 16.5 (Over -135) and 17.5 (Over -115). And with Cloud possibly slowed and leaving a gap in the Mystics’ defense along with Chicago’s home-court cooking, the ceiling could be even higher for Mabrey.

She sees her production spike to 24.2 points per home game, shooting almost 52% from the floor as well as 45.5% from beyond the arc (versus 11.8 ppg, 34% FG, 26% 3PT on the road).

Mabrey scored just 11 points at Washington last Sunday, finishing 5-for-13 from the field, including an ice-cold 1-for-7 count from beyond the arc. She did, however, post 19 points in just 26 minutes in a home stand with the Mystics last month.

She’s logging 30-plus minutes per game now as a vital part of this rotation and is primed for another strong showing in front of the ChiTown faithful tonight.

Marina Mabrey Total Points: Over 16.5 (-135 at DraftKings)

Cats on the glass

The Lynx are among the better rebounding teams in the WNBA, ranked No. 2 in rebound rate and limiting opponents to a league-low 33.1 average rebounds per outing.

That status has sputtered a bit with the Lynx’s leading rebounder Jessica Shepard sidelined due to an illness, leaving the bulk of boards to Napheesa Collier.

The 6-foot-1 forward averages 7.5 rebounds on the season but has increased that to nine boards a night in Shepard’s absence. That includes a 14-rebound effort in the win at L.A. on Tuesday.

With Minnesota hosting Connecticut tonight, Collier has a rebound prop of 7.5 boards with the Over a pricy -140.

Her projections call for more than nine rebounds, and given Shepard is still out and the Sun will be without 6-foot-3 forward Brionna Jones (8.2 rebounds per game), Collier will have a much bigger night on the boards than the last time she played Connecticut. She recorded just two rebounds in a road loss on June 1, while Shepard finished with a dozen boards in that game.

Over 7.5 rebounds is out there as big as -146, so there could be a move to 8.5 with the Over coming back at plus-money closer to tipoff. As of Thursday afternoon, the cheapest vig is -140.

Napheesa Collier Total Rebounds: Over 7.5 (-140 at bet365)

Feels like rain

As Jewell Loyd goes, so do the Storm.

The best shooting guard in the WNBA enters Thursday’s home date with the Fever leading the league in scoring with more than 26 points per game. A good chunk of that production comes from beyond the arc, with Loyd knocking down 3.6 triples per outing.

Player modeling for Loyd sees her 3-point success ranging from 3.3 to 4.2 makes from downtown tonight but the real interesting thing is how sportsbooks are pricing her 3-pointers made prop. FanDuel is offering Over 4.5 triples from Seattle’s star at +100, while bet365 has Over 3.5 at the same EVEN price tag.

Loyd has been especially active from outside the past two games, going a collective 13-for-28 from distance in matchups with Dallas and Connecticut, and has the greenlight again given tonight’s opponent.

Indiana is among the worst defenses in the league and has been pummeled from beyond the arc the past two games, allowing those two foes (Atlanta and Chicago) to shoot a combined 19-for-41 on 3-point attempts (46.3%).

With projections, matchups and a taller total calling for a high-scoring game script, we’ll snatch up the lower total at the EVEN money price tag. 

Jewell Loyd Total 3-Pointers Made: Over 3.5 (+100 at bet365)

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

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