Best WNBA Player Props Today: Collier Keeps Up On the Glass

Wing and a prayer

The Dallas Wings need a win badly. Luckily, the schedule gods have served up a sliding Phoenix Mercury team that just canned its head coach.

Newly-named All-Star starter Satou Sabally is pegged for a big night, taking the fight to one of the worst defenses in the league.

Sabally could also use a boost, after outputs of eight, 10, and 13 points in her last three games — sitting well below her season scoring average of 20.9 points prior to that three-game swoon. That’s dragged her scoring total down to 17.5 points for Tuesday’s road trip to the desert.

Player models forecast between 18.6 and 20.3 points from the talented fourth-year forward. Sabally can score in transition, around the key, and with her back to the basket, and books expect the Wings to have plenty of possessions.

Phoenix is the most turnover-prone team in the WNBA and is missing some key bodies in the backcourt. The Mercury have coughed the ball up an average of 17.2 times during their five-game slide, which has translated into more than 20 points per game allowed off those mistakes. The Wings thrive in transition, sitting third in points off turnovers and fourth in fastbreak buckets.

Sabally burned Phoenix for 17 and 24 points in their two meetings at Dallas earlier in the month, shooting a collective 13-for-32 but cashing in 11 of 12 trips to the foul line. Her projections for tonight should have the Over 17.5 priced around -140 or higher but you can get Over at -108 at FanDuel.

Satou Sabally prop: Over 17.5 points (-108 at FanDuel)

Arc reactor

The Minnesota Lynx perimeter defense is about as secure as your grandpa’s email password (1234!), watching foes launch a league-high 26.5 threes per game while cashing in 9.3 of those long-range looks (35%).

That means about 28 of the 83 points allowed by Minnesota come off triples (33.8%). It just so happens that the most dangerous 3-point shooter in the WNBA is in town with Jewel Loyd and the Seattle Storm visiting the Target Center tonight.

Loyd leads the league with 25.4 points a night and collects 10.2 of those tallies from distance. Her 3-pointers made prop is a bit foreboding — sitting as high as 3.5 O/U — and there’s value in her scoring prop with models calling for 25+ from the electric shooting guard.

My number has Loyd listed for 26.5 points while some models have a ceiling pushing past 29. All of those projections clear a point total of 24.5 (Over -115) which should be priced more like Over 24.5 -130 given the forecast for Seattle’s superstar scorer.

Jewell Loyd prop: Over 24.5 points (-115 at BetRivers)

Miss Glass

I’ve had some bad breaks when it comes to betting Over on Napheesa Collier's rebounding totals lately, with the Lynx forward pulling down six against a total of 6.5, or seven boards against a total of 7.5. But I’m back at it again with Minnesota hosting Seattle tonight.

Rarely do all WNBA player projections agree, but models are at a consensus that Collier will go Over 8.5 boards tonight. Lucky for us, the rebounding markets have her Over 8.5 at EVEN money.

Those player forecasts range from 8.8 to 9.3 with a ceiling of 10.02 rebounds for Collier, who is averaging 7.5 boards on the season. She’s upped that 8.5 rebounds over the last four games with starting center Jessica Shepard sidelined due to illness.

The Storm come into Tuesday playing the league’s fourth fastest pace and tossing up more than 68 field goal attempts an outing while shooting a league-low 39% from the field. Seattle also sits second last in rebound rate at 47.4% and watches foes wrangle an average of 36.5 rebounds a contest — third most.

Given the player projections and the 1/1 price on Over 8.5 for Collier’s rebounds, we’re getting solid +EV on this player prop which should be priced as high as -130. Some sportsbooks are dealing 9.5 O/U with the Over as high as -120, so be sure to shop around.

Napheesa Collier prop: Over 8.5 rebounds (+100 at bet365)