Best WNBA Player Props Today: Can Wilson Top a Bloated Number?

Rebound rewind

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

I bet Napheesa Collier Over 8.5 rebounds in Tuesday’s matchup with the Storm, and the Lynx’s standout forward hauled in 10 rebounds, but not without a little sweat in the second half. Collier wrangled only three total boards in the opening 20 minutes but went hard on the glass in the final two frames to cash in that Over.

Tonight, Minnesota makes the trip to the Emerald City and Collier’s rebounding total is a touch lower at 7.5 (Over -125). This markets actually opened Over 7.5 -115 and that vig has since shifted as high as -148 as of Thursday afternoon.

Collier has taken over top rebounding duties for the Lynx since starting center Jessica Shepard went down due to illness, averaging 8.8 boards per game in those five outings. Her player projections for tonight all call for more than eight boards, with my number at 9.06.

The Storm fire up the fifth-most field goal attempts at home, but shoot a league worst 39.8% from the floor in those games, which means there are plenty of wayward shots up for grabs. Seattle also owns the second-lowest rebound rate in the WNBA (47.4%) and was outworked 38-33 on the glass in the Lynx 104-93 victory Tuesday.

I’m calling for Collier to have another big night on the boards and go Over this slimmer rebounding total tonight.

Napheesa Collier Total Rebounds: Over 7.5 (-125 at bet365)

Aces low

Not only does tonight’s Liberty-Aces contest give us a battle between the WNBA’s top two title contenders but we also get a showdown between former MVPs, with Breanna Stewart and A’ja Wilson matching up.

These two know each other very well, going back to Stewie’s time in Seattle. Wilson will be focused on slowing down the current WNBA MVP favorite, which could see her expending a lot of energy on defense and seeing a downtick in her offensive output.

Player projections all sit shorter than 19 points for Wilson tonight, which makes the Under 20.5 points on her scoring prop pop. The Under is sitting as low as -120 with some books pushing the price with the vig as high as -139. With my number at 18.5 points for the two-time Most Valuable Player, the Under 20.5 should be priced more in the -180 range.

Wilson’s scoring prop is a bit puffed up after putting up 28 and 24 points against the young frontcourt of the Fever the past two contests. New York poses a veteran front in this big game with Stewart, Jonquel Jones, and Betnijah Laney not being intimidated by the Aces or the magnitude of this meeting.

Las Vegas has plenty of options on offense to lean on (see my Kelsey Plum Over play in the game preview) and if Wilson draws defensive duties on Stewie, the Aces aren’t as reliant on her to also put up points.

A’ja Wilson Total Points: Under 20.5 (-120 at bet365)

Nothin’ from Sutton

The Mercury have rolled out numerous lineups due to a rash of injuries in the first month of the season. That’s produced some bigger nights from supporting staff, such as Sug Sutton.

Sutton thrived when Phoenix was down Brittney Griner and Diana Taurasi earlier this month, including a 21-point performance with both stars sidelined against Las Vegas. She also got extra minutes when fellow guard Sophie Cunningham went down with a back injury.

However, with the Mercury expected to have all three standouts in the lineup against Indiana tonight, Sutton’s scoring output will take a hit. Most WNBA player models are calling for less than 10 points from the 5-foot-8 guard, with my number sitting at 9.6 and a basement of 7.32 points.

Sutton’s scoring prop is as tall as 10.5 points (Under -115) while some books are down to 9.5 (Under -145), so make sure to shop around for that tall total. Given the projections, the Under 10.5 points should be priced more in the -155 range.

Sug Sutton Total Points: Under 10.5 (-115 at bet365)