WNBA betting enters its third day of the season, with three games on tap Sunday. That means a solid slate of WNBA prop picks and predictions.
The Washington Mystics and Connecticut Sun stake their claim in the East while the heavily-hyped New York Liberty attempt to bounce back from an opening game loss as big home chalk to the Indiana Fever. The Phoenix Mercury are also going for their first win in an emotional home game against the visiting Chicago Sky.
I scour today's WNBA odds and give my best WNBA free betting picks for May 21.
WNBA player prop bets for May 21
- Delle Donne Over 5.5 rebounds
- Ionescu Over 17.5 points
- Taurasi Over 17.5 points
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Today's best WNBA player props bets
Washington’s star on the windows
For the first time in a long time, Washington Mystics star Elena Delle Donne is healthy entering the WNBA season. That showed in the Mystics’ season opener, with Delle Donne helping D.C. upset the mighty Liberty by scoring 13 points, dishing out five assists, and grabbing four rebounds.
Another tough test awaits Sunday, with the Sun dueling with Washington for a top spot in the East this season. This game has a shorter total at 156.5 compared to the Mystics’ matchup with New York on Friday, as both teams lean into their defense (ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in defensive rating last season).
Delle Donne’s rebound prop for Sunday is sitting at 5.5 boards with the Over priced at +100. Projections for EDD have her rebound total flirting with eight at 7.7, which gives the Over a ton of headroom and some great positive expected value.
She averaged 6.3 rebounds per game in 2022 but did so while nursing a troublesome back that's plagued her since the 2019 WNBA Finals.
She not only enters the 2023 season at 100% health but has been putting in the reps in the weight room and told the media she’s the strongest she’s ever been. The last time EDD was this healthy, she averaged 8.3 rebounds per game back in 2019.
The Sun were the top rebounding team in the land in terms of rebound rate last season, with the Mystics at No. 4. Washington needs Delle Donne to be a force on the glass while fellow forward Myisha Hines-Allen recovers from offseason knee surgery.
Elena Delle Donne Prop: Over 5.5 rebounds (+100 at bet365)
New York State of Mind
The New York Liberty didn’t launch their 2023 WNBA Championship campaign the way they had planned, losing Friday’s season opener in Washington.
New York’s offense was a mess, with 20 turnovers and a 34% success rate from the floor, including a dismal 7-for-31 day from beyond the arc. In the middle of those miscues was Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu, who finished 7-for-20 (2-for-9 on triples) for 18 points in the loss.
Ionescu is having to adapt to not having the ball in her hands all the time, with New York adding veteran point guard Courtney Vandersloot this offseason. That has Ionescu in more catch-and-shoot situations rather than generating her looks off the dribble and high screens.
Her point prop for Sunday’s home date with Indiana is sitting at 17.5 points (Over -115) while her projections have her pegged for closer to 20 points. Given this massive spread, the game script is there for New York to pile on the points against the Fever.
Ionescu averaged 22.3 points over three matchups with Indiana last season, including a 31-point performance early in the season. This year’s Liberty squad isn’t as reliant on her to score the ball, with a surplus of talent arriving this offseason, but her projections and ceiling are too high to ignore against this modest scoring total today.
Sabrina Ionescu Prop: Over 17.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Diana of the Desert
It’s been a big weekend for the Phoenix Mercury, not only tipping off the 2023 season but celebrating Brittney Griner’s return to action after her detainment in Russia that cost her last season.
Phoenix may have been caught up in the emotion of Friday’s game in Los Angeles, coming out unfocused in a 23-point loss to the Sparks.
The Mercury are home Sunday, where Griner will get a huge welcome from the Phoenix faithful, but it’s another savvy vet that has my eye for the final game of Sunday’s three-game slate.
I bet Diana Taurasi Over 14.5 points in that season opener and she just squeaked Over the total with a 15-point performance, shooting a poor 4-for-15 from the floor (1-for-9 on triples) and picking up the bulk of those points at the foul line (6-for-7 on FTA).
Her prop on points tonight is at 17.5 (Over -125) against the visiting Sky and I’m not the only one expecting a better effort from the WNBA’s elder stateswoman. Taurasi’s player projections are calling for closer to 21 points Sunday.
The 19-year WNBA veteran, who averaged just under 17 points through 31 games last year, plays her best basketball at home.
She averaged 22.5 points per game inside Footprint Center in 2022 (vs. just 12 average points on the road) while shooting 39.4% from beyond the arc (compared to 27.5% on 3-pointers away from home).
A bounceback spot, a hyped home crowd, and an uptick in offensive efficiency have D.T. going Over her 17.5-point prop tonight.
Diana Taurasi Prop: Over 17.5 points (-125 at bet365)
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